Global trade is evolving, not ending, as structural limits on U.S. protectionism and the rise of regional agreements beyond U.S. influence sustain economic integration. While the U.S. remains the dominant power, the U.S.-centric trade regime is gradually declining.

After reaching a consensus in their tariff negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States have significantly reduced their duties on each other. This has awakened countries around the world and inspired them to launch a new wave of regional integration.

For many nations, a highly profitable trade relationship with the United States is now no longer a given. With President Trump’s tariff agenda looming over the world, how is Asia planning for a future where the U.S. may not be so open for business?

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trade pact, integrates 15 diverse economies to revitalize globalization, enhance trade rules, and bolster ASEAN’s centrality in regional trade. Amid U.S.-China tensions, RCEP offers opportunities for supply chain shifts and industrial upgrades while positioning China to deepen ties with developing regions through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

The shift of the US policy from engaging China to containing China can be traced back to the Obama administration and his pivot to Asia strategy in 2009.

Australia’s alignment to the West and its trade barriers with China has entrenched tensions between the two Asian countries.

ASEAN toes a delicate balancing act between China and the United States, and the latest ASEAN Summit demonstrates the complexities involved in steering clear of unnecessary tensions.

Is the U.S. ready to meaningfully engage with the Asia-Pacific region? Their latest offering comes in the form of the IPEF, and the differences between the U.S.-led trade pact and competing ones led by Asian powers will show whether American leadership has brought enough to the table.

Six factors suggest that the IPEF will not succeed: meager benefits for developing economies, new and unpopular commitments, disproportionate benefits for the U.S., vague negotiating plans, uncertainty of the framework’s survival under a new American administration and skepticism by U.S. allies.

The Biden administration is prioritizing its foreign policy strategy in Asia by extensive outreach and alliances in the region. Strategic partnerships with other countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific , are crucial for the U.S. to keep up with China’s growth in the region.