The legacy of Donald Trump may endure if only because he triggered a new global order through the law of unintended consequences. He has set in motion a major power shift in which China — aligning with India, Russia and key trade blocs — will become the global captain over the next 10 to 20 years.

The war in Ukraine grinds on into its fourth year, and yet peace seems elusive. American President Donald Trump recently met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska. Some hailed this as a breakthrough; others derided it as Trump being “played.”

While presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both got something out of the virtual bust, Europe and Ukraine are actually relieved that they failed to reach an agreement. This not only preserves Europe’s dignity but keeps the door open for future negotiations.

The summit could mark a turning point in U.S.-Russia relations and lead to a rewriting of the geopolitical playbook. For China, the lesson is that it must hold fast to its principles, maintain strategic composure and pursue its interests on its own terms.

Over the past 50 years since diplomatic relations were established between China and the European Union, differences have never become insurmountable obstacles. This is the proven pattern and the one to which they should continue to adhere in the future.

At the 25th China-EU Summit in Beijing, Chinese and European leaders acknowledged both overlapping interests and deep divergences, especially over China’s seeming alignment with Russia and the Ukraine war. While Beijing seeks improved economic ties with Europe, it continues to prioritize geopolitical security and its strategic rivalry with the U.S. over European concerns, limiting the prospects for major diplomatic improvements.

The early decades of the 21st Century have already seen a rapid shifting of global power, and today one could view the world’s relationships flowing through a four-way struggle for balance and dominance between the U.S., China, the EU, and Russia.

The recent tariff episode shook global economic confidence in a way that’s only been seen in the aftermath of major catastrophes, despite relief coming in the short-term. Has the damage been done to America’s trade hegemony?

The U.S.-Russia contest over Ukraine ‌shows both the persistence of classic power politics and the clash of competing worldviews‌ at a time when the international system is undergoing ‌a seismic process of reordering. The Ukraine war and its potential settlement ‌are upending traditional major-power dynamics‌.

Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.