The United States, sees strategic parallels between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan. It thinks lessons learned from Ukraine may serve as a model for dealing with China on Taiwan. But the differences are significant. To “Ukrainize” Taiwan is to provoke war rather than foster peace.

Could the United States and China go to war over Taiwan? China regards the island 90 miles (145 kilometers) off its coast as a renegade province, and President Xi Jinping raised the issue at the recent 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Though Xi said he prefers reunification by peaceful means, his objective was clear, and he did not rule out the use of force. Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the share of the population identifying as solely Taiwanese continues to exceed the share that identifies as both Chinese and Taiwanese.

Foreigners have hyped the possibility that Beijing will resort to reunification by force. This creates a dilemma: China must either accept the prospect of secession or the destructive consequences of force. Escaping this trap will require joint efforts by Chinese people on both sides of the strait.

Europe has stepped up its engagement with Taiwan to a level unthinkable only a few years ago - a dynamic which is welcomed in Washington but risks triggering commercial reprisals from Beijing. If not managed carefully, such actions threaten to reduce Europe’s diplomatic leeway and ability to contribute to a peaceful solution of Cross-Strait relations. The EU should urgently set up a high-level communication channel with Beijing to complement the transatlantic dialogue on the Indo-Pacific established last year.

Taiwan and Ukraine have drawn many comparisons this year due to the perceived similarities in their precarious security situations. In the wake of the crisis in Ukraine, countries are watching situations like the one in the Taiwan Strait closely.

With the possible passage of the Taiwan Policy Act of 2002, the United States is showing that, notwithstanding lip service, it is moving in a direction of open support for the island. China must prepare for the worst-case scenario.

The US Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs just endorsed the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 by 17-5. The legislation will then be submitted to the Senate for review. If the House also proposes and approves a corresponding legislation later, President Biden may sign it into law. Even if the Act won’t sail through Congress, corresponding clauses may still be incorporated into such legislations as the National Defense Authorization Act and put into practice.

While the Taiwan Policy Act is making its way through the labyrinth in the congressional process in Washington, D.C., it is high time to ponder the consequences of this Act, if adopted and enacted, for China and the United States.

Their positions vary in some details, but the overall thrust is consistent: ASEAN wants peace and prosperity and supports the “one-China” principle. Members have been cautious not to choose sides in a major power rivalry because they see value in both.

The two allies will feel the urge to escalate their positions on Taiwan as a way of testing each other’s loyalty. But intervention in the Taiwan Strait will leave the island in a state of strategic stagnation and will cause unnecessary regional turmoil.