China and the U.S. both emphasize that their Taiwan policies have not changed, even though their wording has. The larger problem, however, is that the authorities in Taiwan authorities are bent on independence and rely heavily on U.S. power. This has created an Asian powder keg.

Past agreements that were sufficient to navigate the political complexities are being eroded. China and the United States now seem driven toward more military posturing. But the notion of gaining security solely through military might is an illusion. A new approach is needed.

U.S. allies in East Asia are growing reluctant to support American military actions in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan. These allies express concerns about the significant costs and risks associated with such a conflict, prompting them to advocate for restraint and inform Washington that it would have to confront any resulting conflict with China independently.

Just as a pianist practises a new piece of music slowly, with attention to every phrase, keeping the first signs of goodwill between Washington and Beijing on track calls for a disciplined use of words. More educational exchanges and people-to-people interactions will also help improve understanding and dispel fear and suspicion.

The Taiwan stand-off between the island, China, and the U.S. has been a simmering point of tension for decades, but with anti-China rhetoric ratcheting up in the West, and bolder American overtures towards Taiwan’s elected leaders, the potential for open conflict seems more and more likely.

The United States is at a three-way crossroads. It must decide whether to defend Taiwan, abandon Taiwan or destroy Taiwan. Will the U.S. risk being dragged into a war as it continues to use Taiwan to contain China’s progress? The clock is ticking.

Washington’s repeated provocations — both military and political — have made any recovery of stable relations with China difficult. If the United States fails to comprehend the serious nature of the Taiwan question, war will likely result.

AUKUS has laid out a plan for Australia to acquire its own SSN fleet. While the buildup of subs will take several years, submarine basing access and easing of constraints on the transfer of submarine parts and technologies to allies and partners mean that the program’s impact can be felt sooner in the Indo-Pacific, including on the Taiwan Straits hotspot.

Taiwan’s DPP, the pro-independence ruling party, has been fighting to retain relationships in the fallout of losing Honduras’ recognition to Beijing. Meanwhile, opposition leaders have breached a historic cross-strait divide with a visit to mainland China, all of this happening in the run up to Taiwan’s presidential elections next year.

Consultations with island authorities on trade shows American double-dealing. The visit undermined core Chinese interests and had a negative effect. It will do harm but no good in China-U.S. relations and will only undermine U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit.