Despite a confrontational summit in Alaska, the U.S. and China lack the military appetite for a new “Cold War.” The reality is both sides have more to lose from a direct confrontation then they could gain.

A meeting in Anchorage, representing the midway point between the U.S. and China, was nothing close to a middle ground for either country. Without a productive agenda that includes compromises, the two great powers are not going to be able to cooperate.

Although the Biden administration’s approach to strategic competition is quite different from the Trump administration’s, it does not necessarily follow that China–U.S. relations will stabilize and improve.

The deterioration of China-U.S. relations has not ended, and a turnaround is unlikely. Given the intense frictions of recent years, both countries have built up a fixed mindset about diplomatic strategy that has been incorporated in their domestic politics. Superb diplomatic skills will be needed to avert confrontation.

There’s a long list of worthwhile possibilities in the military and security fields, and it’s of utmost importance that the two countries engage with one another. The result of failure could be catastrophic.

Reflecting on the recent meeting in Alaska between China and the United States, one might be tempted to worry about the tough U.S. posturing. Closer examination, however, suggests it was just political theater staged for the media and domestic observers.

The new U.S. president will want to invest hard strategic resources in the Asia-Pacific region, which will require the use of diplomatic and economic measures to maintain its strategic presence in the Middle East. The arrangement looks reasonable, but it is doomed to fail.

The world has entered a new phase, one that presents new implications for the China-U.S. relationship. As time goes on, adjustments will be made, and some quarrels are inevitable. But in the end, a new type of relations will emerge.

The U.S.-China talks in Alaska will set the stage for future interaction. After public and private meetings met with frustration on both sides, it’s possible a real dialogue has begun. But one thing is certain: China is ready to get down to business.

Large gaps between ambassador appointments can cause significant challenges for the next diplomat. As the next U.S. ambassador sent to Beijing is determined, they should look to past successes like James Lilley to understand how to engage with China.