The U.S. has seemingly pulled out all the stops to advance its agenda in Southeast Asia, hoping to entice countries away from China. Yet, as members of China’s neighborhood, ASEAN members will find it hard to create distance between themselves and China, literally and figuratively.

The controversial claims China has made in the South China Sea has made it difficult to be its neighbor - but Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte is willing to subvert his own administration to try and mend fences.

The ever-outspoken Rodrigo Duterte has navigated a contentious and dynamic situation in Southeast Asia with his bombastic leadership, which has disrupted a nearly century-old relationship with the U.S. No longer satisfied with compliance to American security concerns, Duterte may prove to be a formidable obstacle for Biden’s designs on establishing power in the Pacific.

As a former U.S. colony, the Philippines has maintained close ties with the United States on security issues for decades, and may quickly become a key player in Washington’s plans in the Indo-Pacific as China tests their claims across the South China Sea.

The rhetoric of the United States is designed to stoke fear and amp up tensions so that it can more easily form an alliance against China. Playing up the threat theory, however, only shows helplessness as China exercises its maritime rights.

More efforts are needed by China and the Philippines to relieve tensions over the presence of Chinese vessels. Variables such as a mutual defense treaty with the United States and the coming presidential election in the Philippines are possible inflection points.

President Rodrigo Duterte’s decision to advocate for online Chinese casinos despite their affiliated risks has exacerbated anti-Chinese sentiment among the Philippine people. He may have to reform his support of the industry, lest he face the deterioration of his long-cultivated friendship with Beijing.

Duterte’s decision to cut ties with the US exposes the Philippines to many geopolitical threats and represents a strategic victory for Beijing in the region.

Beneath the surface of improving political ties lie persistent concerns over Chinese strategic investments in the Philippines.

Philippine president Duterte and the US-trained Philippine military have long been at war concerning the country’s amicability with China. Now, a Beijing-friendly official has come into power in the coast guard, tipping the balance in Duterte’s favor.