Tensions are continuing to escalate in the South China Sea, specifically with the Second Thomas Shoal dispute between the Philippines and China. And in response to China's actions, the Philippines' are shifting towards stronger defense ties with the U.S., including potential joint patrols and resupply missions. If careful diplomacy is not employed, there could be a potential crisis and risk of armed clashes in the South China Sea.

The ongoing Second Thomas Shoal incident could trigger misjudgments and a wider conflict. Keeping the peace will require a comprehensive approach to crisis management, especially where foundational principles are involved.

Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. gave his second State of the Nation Address last month, where he briefly mentioned the country’s complex relationship with China. As elsewhere, China presents challenges and opportunities for the Philippines, and this should continue to inform Marcos’ evolving foreign policy.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte made a surprise visit to Beijing last month, taking unusually formal visits with government officials as a private citizen. This reveals a schism among the Filipino ruling elite, diverging on how much the Southeast Asian nation should associate with China.

After years of distrust, Vietnam and the Philippines may finally have the opportunity to establish a truly consequential strategic partnership amid rising geopolitical uncertainty in the South China Sea.

The U.S. and the Philippines held their first 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in Washington, D.C. in seven years, with the aim to strengthen strategic cooperation and mark a new era of partnership. Discussions included the ongoing Taiwan crisis and the Philippines' announcement of opening four additional bases to U.S. troops under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has assured that these bases will not be used for offensive purposes in the event of a Sino-American conflict over Taiwan, despite concerns of dependence and geopolitical provocation.

Generally speaking, the relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries is positive, which adds a degree of certainty in an uncertain world. However, if President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. loses his way over the South China Sea and Taiwan, new uncertainty will come.

The United States has gained expanded military access in the Philippines, including the renewal of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and potential joint patrols in the South China Sea, which has raised concerns from some Filipino lawmakers and questions about the country's independent foreign policy. Additionally, there are worries about the speed and transparency of the expansion, as well as its impact on domestic politics and foreign relations with China and beyond.

As the Philippines shifts its foreign policy strategy, it has become a pivotal player in both the Indo-Pacific and the West. While India has diverged from its Western partners, the Philippines is moving in the opposite direction, not taking “sides” by building stronger relations with other countries and seeking a strong positioning and cooperation with key nations.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines described the challenge presented by the great power rivalry between the U.S. and China: “It keeps you up at night, keeps you up in the day, keeps you up most of the time. … It’s very dynamic, it’s constantly in flux, so you have to pay attention to it.”