China-US Focus editor KJ Kerr sat down with Dr. Michael D. Swaine, a prominent American scholar of Chinese security studies, to explore his thoughts on the state of U.S.-China relations. Swaine, currently with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, points to a need for greater frankness and openness between the rival powers and suggests that they can do things — both individually and together — to reduce tensions and forestall conflict.

"Reagan asked Gorbachev: If Martians attacked the United States, would you come to our defense? And Gorbachev said yes, and then asked Reagan: If Martians attacked the USSR, would you come to our defense? And President Reagan said yes."

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice. He previously served as the U.S. State Department’s inaugural director of the Office of China Coordination (China House) and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Biden administration. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Rick Waters addresses potential risks and possible cooperation between the U.S. and China.

Daniel Russel is vice-president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He previously served as special assistant to U.S. President Barack Obama and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs at the U.S. State Department from 2013 to 2017. He was a major figure in the Obama administration's "pivot towards Asia" strategy. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Daniel Russel shares his concerns on U.S.-China rivalry in new technologies and its impact on bilateral relations and the globe as well.

The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge.

To avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into conflict, China and the United States must come to agreement about what strategic stability means. The concept is interwoven with the basic assumptions of each side as they negotiate, but their current mismatch is serious and undermines success.

If both sides maintain a rational and pragmatic understanding of each other and continue on a path of patient, stable communication — looking for opportunities to close seemingly impossible gaps — then a positive outcome is still in the game.

As U.S.-China relations face mounting tension and uncertainty, reflecting on the early days of cultural exchange in the 1980s reveals a simpler time of optimism, goodwill, and mutual curiosity. While today's challenges are formidable, the shared experiences of those who helped build these ties offer a reminder that, even in times of difficulty, there remains potential for collaboration and understanding.

The recent visit to Beijing by Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, revealed some new trends in the development of relations. Both sides wish to preserve stability against the backdrop of U.S. presidential elections and — to use a significant phrase — move forward.

Nuclear deterrence has been a defining characteristic of international security for nearly a century now. Already having weathered one Cold War, could China push the U.S. over the edge towards an all-out arms race in the 21st Century?