Five critical challenges present themselves in the post-San Francisco summit era: Taiwan, geopolitics, dialogue mechanisms, American elections and the U.S. view of strategic competition. Be prepared for a potentially bumpy ride in 2024.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden last fall, some interpreted it as a return to engagement. In fact, it heralded only a minor détente, not a major change in policy.

While some good things have emerged, the foundation is not yet strong enough. Relations may be warming but no one is scorched by the heat. The overall temperature remains cool. Washington won’t be changing its policy of competition, and political rhetoric during the coming U.S. presidential election year will only add complexity.

The Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco was undoubtedly going to lead to new developments in cross-Pacific relations, but one month after the meeting the overall climate between the two rivals has yet to change.

Renewed attempts to cooperate seem to be bearing fruit recently, but these successes must now pass through the fire of a divided America. The hard-won cooperation potential may well be interrupted by the election cycle in 2024, magnified by an increase in negative rhetoric regarding China.

After several years of intense competition, the resilience of China-U.S. relations ultimately showed itself in 2023. While anti-China rhetoric is bound to surface during the coming political election year — primarily from hawkish Republicans — many points of consensus are clear.

One month out from the Xi-Biden talks in San Francisco, the world may have witnessed a major turning point in China’s international affairs - if the U.S. plays along.

China and the United States have been working in the right direction since the Bali summit. However, they still face many challenges. Next year is the 45th anniversary of China-U.S. diplomatic ties. What better time to bolster the foundation of peaceful coexistence and inject some certainty into a turbulent world?

The summit meeting of presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden was an opportunity to redefine the narrative, find balance and set a precedent for a more predictable framework in which global challenges can be tackled together. The world is watching.

An overemphasis on competition may lead to pessimism and miscalculation. While the United States appears to be upgrading measures designed to pressure China, it should also strengthen its economic and trade ties. Interdependence and mutual benefit are excellent motivators.