For the last two years, the conflict between the United States and China has dominated the economic and financial-market debate – with good reason. After threats and accusations that long predate US President Donald Trump’s election, rhetoric has given way to action. Over the past 17 months, the world’s two largest economies have become embroiled in the most serious tariff war since the early 1930s.

“Competition” carries any number of connotations, from benign to malicious. Clarity about exactly what the Trump administration means would be helpful.

A worsening relationship is probably unavoidable if the two countries adhere to their current domestic choices. If they want better ties, both need to make adjustments, but that seems unlikely.

Weakening political will on the part of the United States and others is undermining the global commons necessary for good global governance. That’s where China comes in.

Cutting ties would undoubtedly hurt both countries. But when wishful policies collide with the iron laws of economics, the latter are certain to prevail.

The more China and the US are coupled, the more insecure they feel. Some sort of split seems inevitable.

Some wrestling may be needed before they can seriously look at decoupling.

As U.S. policy has grown increasingly aggressive, China’s posture has shifted, with long-term effects.