Following a brief "honeymoon", trade emerges as a major point of friction, especially as the 100-day trade plan concludes on July 16th.

Europe is a long way from a common defense structure, but the need is growing. And, ironically, the unpopular Trump may prove more of a help than a hindrance.

As long as China continues to carry out its export-driven economic growth model through its strong state capitalism, then the U.S. business community will still have to face trade protectionism through non-tariff barriers, industrial policy, subsidies, and currency manipulation.

Despite years of protectionist polices put into action by its government, the American steel industry continues to flounder. As President Trumps launches a new protectionist agenda under the guise of national security imperatives, he continues to ignore the problems that truly plague U.S. steel.

The message congressional Republicans took from the 2016 elections was that Republican voters like Trump and hate virtually everyone else in the Republican Party. They fear that if they ever break rank with him they’ll be voted out in the next election. Few politicians got very far by blaming the electorate or scolding them for their bad choices.

Put simply, President Trump thinks that Europe and other allies have profited too much at the US’ expense and that the US should stop being such a sucker. That view will shape trans-Atlantic relations for the duration of this presidency.

It is not ideology that Beijing should count on, then, but incompetence. With TPP and the Paris Agreement, the Trump White House has been driven by rank opportunism – not in pursuit of a coherent set of policy goals, but rather to claim alpha status by the simplest means available.

One of the primary responsibilities as president is to ensure the security of the United States as well as stability on a global level. To serve as a “threat minimizer” if you will. However, in the last five months, Trump’s clear disregard for these responsibilities only serves to further validate concerns about his qualifications to lead.

While the U.S. remains the largest recipient of foreign investment, investors today have many options regarding where to invest, and other countries look increasingly more stable and better managed in comparison to President Trump’s deteriorating “rule of law.” Thus, Chinese investors who have long seen the U.S. as a stable growth market may well reconsider.

As cooperation advances and with a shared position on climate change, China-EU relations are likely to maintain a momentum of steady growth, and cooperation will become increasingly important in this world of increased uncertainties about the US.