Regional trade alliances and economic integration — especially the one emerging between China, ASEAN and countries in the Persian Gulf — are offering stability for a global economy on the edge. The world’s poles are shifting to fill the gap left by an increasingly isolationist United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs – especially the ultra-high “reciprocal tariffs” that he says will be reintroduced on July 8 for any country that has not struck a trade deal with his administration – have sent countries around the world scrambling to respond, adapt, and limit the fallout. ASEAN’s ten members – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam – have been among the most proactive.

America’s tariff agenda has taken global trade hostage to begin this year. While the strongman tactics employed by Trump’s administration are netting favorable results in some ways, China has been able to hold out from the pressure, showing flaws in America’s plan.

In April 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted a five-day diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia from April 14 to 18. The strategically timed visit, Xi’s first overseas trip of the year, occurred amid escalating trade tensions driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on over 70 countries, including China and the three nations Xi visited. The tour aimed to reinforce China’s economic and diplomatic influence in the region, counter U.S. trade policies, and solidify partnerships within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Ten years after its launch, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has underperformed, with many key projects stalled due to Pakistan's political mismanagement and inefficiencies. While China continues to support the initiative diplomatically, its future success depends on Pakistan’s ability to implement strategic reforms and restore investor confidence.

Speculation about a "Grand Bargain" between Trump and Xi persists, but deep divisions within Washington, Trump’s erratic leadership, and Beijing’s long-term strategic patience make a major breakthrough unlikely. Even if a meeting occurs, structural mistrust and political instability on both sides suggest any deal would be fragile at best.

For many nations, a highly profitable trade relationship with the United States is now no longer a given. With President Trump’s tariff agenda looming over the world, how is Asia planning for a future where the U.S. may not be so open for business?

The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.

After a decade of deglobalization and U.S. geopolitics, globalization is no longer at crossroads, but unraveling. The longer this plunge prevails, the greater will be its costs.

The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.