Export controls are central in economic competition between the U.S. and China. A new U.S.-led multilateral export control regime could further entrench efforts to exclude China from accessing Western technology.

Last January, China’s government forecast that the country’s economy – which, at the time, was experiencing a strong rebound after the initial pandemic slowdown – would grow by 5.5% in 2022. But by the second quarter, unfortunately, the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 had forced the government to implement emergency containment measures in its most economically dynamic cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen.

America may not be able to block China’s core momentum in the manufacture of high-end semiconductors, even with its suppressive CHIPS Act. Rather, the global semiconductor industry will inevitably divide into two parallel, competing systems.

The risk of global economy going into recession has grown.

It’s been a few months since China hosted the virtual BRICS Summit over the summer, but the group is continuing their efforts to bring the summit’s theme to reality: “foster high-quality BRICS partnership” and “usher in a new era for global development.”

It is tempting to give America’s Federal Reserve great credit for its recent about-face in tackling inflation. It is equally tempting to give Chinese President Xi Jinping great credit for his stewardship of a rising and strong China. But neither deserves it – and for a similar reason.

Can a region as complex and fast-changing as Asia devise and implement a comprehensive development plan? The Jakarta-based Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, which just released its third “Comprehensive Asia Development Plan” (CADP), thinks so.

China’s economic troubles in 2022, exacerbated by zero-COVID regulations and stiff barriers for travel and exports, have caused consumer demand to hit a new low. The digital yuan, the first centrally backed crypto token, could be the solution Beijing needs to restore consumer trust in their economy.

The last two years of COVID-regulated trade with China have drastically changed China’s economic and social capital on the world stage. China must be proactive in inviting foreign business back in or risk their former partners losing interest.

IPEF negotiations are underway and four joining statements were recently released at the first in-person IPEF ministerial meeting. But Washington’s motives and the direction they lead negotiations remains to be seen, as they seek to build allyship in the Pacific and increase competition with China.