The renminbi is back at the center of debates about global macroeconomic imbalances. With China’s merchandise trade surplus widening to $1.2 trillion in 2025, and with its manufacturing sector becoming increasingly dominant, the near-consensus among financial and economic commentators is that the renminbi is significantly undervalued. The implication is that China should let its currency appreciate sharply, thereby shrinking its surplus, easing competitive pressure on manufacturers elsewhere, and helping rebalance the global economy.

China and the Asia-Pacific are projected to out-earn the U.S. within ten years, but that doesn’t mean America is going out of business. Will financial power follow the money?

The age of robots is here, and the race to dominate the field is clearly led by America and China. Each country’s distinct advantages provide critical insights into the future of industry.

Chinese industry has been operating under distinctly unfavorable external conditions, with trade tensions, the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and the reconfiguration of global supply chains all exerting pressure on manufacturing. Yet China’s net goods exports have continued to grow and now exceed $1 trillion, with electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and machinery expanding their global footprint. Why have external headwinds not weakened China’s manufacturing competitiveness?

China's latest push to internationalize the renminbi is driven less by ambitions to challenge the U.S. dollar's global dominance than by efforts to build a more resilient financial system that reduces dependence on Western-led financial infrastructure and strengthens China's strategic autonomy amid growing geopolitical competition.

In the long sweep of history, China’s economic performance over the past 50 years will obviously stand out for the sheer scale and pace of quality-of-life improvements within that country. But China’s impact on the rest of the world has still been underappreciated.

Attempting to use “rebalancing” as an excuse for applying pressure on another country or for excluding a particular country from established rules can only exacerbate the rise of global protectionism and economic fragmentation.

The lingering energy shock is morphing from the Asian epicenter to a global economic drag. The U.S./Israel war imposes a fatal penalty on global growth.

The optics of this week’s summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were carefully staged to signal parity between the United States and China. Trump, the first US president to visit mainland China in nearly a decade, was accompanied by an entourage of American CEOs—including Tesla’s Elon Musk (with his son X), Apple’s Tim Cook, Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang—whose businesses rely on maintaining good relations with the People’s Republic. They were duly given a grand welcome in the Great Hall of the People.

Who will shape the future of the international financial order in the 21st century? It’s a fight over rules, institutions and mechanisms. It’s not only about economic influence but a shift in global power.