The Trump administration’s war against Iran is portrayed as a reckless and ill-timed failure that caused massive humanitarian damage, destabilized the region, and disrupted global trade while failing to achieve regime change. China is depicted as a cautious but increasingly credible actor calling for stability and open trade, highlighting shifting global dynamics as the conflict leaves a volatile crisis marked by a fragile ceasefire, blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and a high risk of renewed conflict.

Donald Trump’s fixation on Cuba is driven by a combination of strategic and political considerations: a “Western Hemisphere first” approach, tactics to advance the Trump Doctrine and the practical aim of replicating the Venezuelan model to bolster the U.S. president’s midterm election prospects.

For countries dependent on imported oil, America’s war with Iran and its disruptions on global oil supplies have made China’s renewable energy strategy more attractive. While the Trump administration is doubling down on global oil dominance, China has an opportunity to strengthen its position as the renewable powerhouse while managing concerns of over dependence on Chinese renewable technologies and supply chains.

Even as Israeli bombs rained down on Lebanon, most of the world breathed a cautious sigh of relief when news broke that Pakistan had mediated a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with the goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

The war against Iran is not going well for Israel, which is being bombarded daily, nor is it going well for the US, which has seen its military bases and strategic facilities in the region attacked and degraded by Iranian drones and missiles. Of course, Iran suffers most of all, but it has shown a remarkable capacity to fight a war of attrition, despite the dreadful daily onslaught from the skies. Its reconstituted leadership has shown not a hint of the “unconditional surrender” that Trump is demanding.

The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran lacks a clear legal basis or credible justification and represents a high-risk gamble by the Trump administration. Despite early military success, the operation faces uncertain prospects, including limited chances of regime change and the risk of prolonged conflict.

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes has created leadership uncertainty in Tehran, weakened Iran’s regional network of allies, and accelerated shifts in Middle Eastern power dynamics. For China, the conflict threatens energy supplies and Belt and Road investments while potentially expanding Beijing’s diplomatic role if it maintains neutrality and engagement with all sides.

Critics of the attack on Iran by the United States and Israel point out that US President Donald Trump has no plan for what comes next. And they are not wrong: when Trump boasts that he can resolve wars in a single day, he merely exposes the limits of his attention span. But the real problem is not the shortness of Trump’s time horizon; it’s the narrowness of his threat perception.

The U.S. kidnapping of President Maduro represents one of the worst violations of international law by a major power in decades. It also reflects the role of Venezuela as a battleground of U.S. and Chinese interests.

The United States has complained bitterly about the recent OPEC announcement of a cut in oil production, which was seen as providing indirect aid to Russia and as a slap in the face to U.S. President Joe Biden. But U.S. complaints have been met with a sharp backlash from Saudi Arabia as it looks eastward.