The Abe government welcomed and fostered the US rethink on its China policy, but the COVID-19 crisis, along with the 2020 presidential elections, have accelerated and deepened Washington’s China pushback. Where will Japan situate itself between these two powers?

The U.S.’ commitment to back Japan in a conflict should not be extended to Japan’s vague claim of the Senkaku Islands. The territorial dispute between Japan and China is far too precarious, and one in which the U.S. should avoid in order to prevent further conflict with Beijing.

Japan’s China policy has traditionally been reactive to a more assertive US grand strategy. Yet, in recent years Japan and the US have traded roles, as Abe advanced a China strategy that cajoled more active US support. However, Trump’s confrontational posture against China should worry Abe.

Together, Japan and the US can check China.

Improving China-Japan relations pave the way for improving China-US relations.

Following the opening salvos of U.S. tariffs on solar panels and washing machines, the Trump administration may now also push for a more muscular China policy, to the benefit of Japan’s dealing with China. Make no mistake: while Japan and China relations show signs of a minor détente in the making, this year will witness continued strategic rivalry and the fleshing out of opposing visions of regional, if not global, order.

China led the way on innovative cooperation at the APEC summit, as the U.S. and Japan faltered.

Shinzo Abe’s reelection as prime minister provides a favorable climate for both Donald Trump’s first presidential visit to Japan and an improvement of Chinese-Japanese-U.S. relations.

Japan’s APA boss Toshio Motoya provoked criticisms from China by placing his revisionist history book in APA guest rooms. In this book, he claimed the Nanking Massacre was faked. This represents part of a perceptible shift in Japan toward conservatism, and it implies some deeper and larger change in the country’s overall mindset on war history. While self-deprecation has long overstayed its time in Japan, and self-respect is something better and urgently needed, at the same time it would be in Japan’s very interests not to be embarking on the road of self-aggrandizement.

The U.S. push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership undercut the potential for closer China-Japan ties that might have unbalanced trilateral relations. Policy moves in China or Japan will affect ties among all three countries, which must approach their relationships in a balanced manner for regional and global stability and development.