As the war in Ukraine marks its one year anniversary, and with the recent announcement of China’s call for a ceasefire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, it’s imperative to analyze history and to consider further pathways to peace. Ultimately, China is best positioned to lead the way to the end of the war, and them doing so would be for the betterment of the world.

The recent sanctions from the U.S. against Chinese satellite manufacturer Spacety China in response to the company’s alleged connection with Russia’s Wagner group of mercenaries have significant geopolitical implications. These include increased tensions as a result of U.S. efforts to counter Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, and consequently, an aggravated relationship between Russia and China.

Beijing’s influence on the Ukraine crisis is limited. Neither Washington nor NATO should nurse unrealistic expectations. Relations between China and Russia should not be viewed through the lens of Ukraine. It’s in everyone’s interest to stop the crisis from escalating into a global confrontation.

The United States is the biggest winner in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It’s using it to beef up and modernize its own military and economy. Everyone else has lost. No end is in sight, but one thing is certain: The longer the conflict lasts, the more the U.S. benefits.

The U.S./NATO-led proxy war in Ukraine is aimed against Russia, and is not for the good of Ukraine. It is an unwarranted war that could penalize global economic prospects for years to come, and any escalation will only make a terrifying status quo far worse.

The occupation of Ukraine by hostile Russian forces was one of the primary global focuses last year. The great powers entangled in the conflict touch almost every region of the international community and have pushed Russia and China closer together.

The United States lacks the strength and influence to simultaneously contain both China and Russia. As with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, its policies will place it in strategic overdraft and lead to more strategic errors.

The thought of full-blown war with China has become mainstream in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. A potent mix of simmering animosity and economic concerns have created a heated climate that both sides need to take a step back from before the U.S. or China falls victim to the intoxicating pull of escalation.

To answer, it is essential to place Russia’s motives in historical context. Since the conflict is essentially between Russia and NATO, the West must be willing to negotiate. Otherwise the struggle will be protracted, with no end in sight.

The war in Ukraine, whether short or long-term, doesn’t serve China’s national interests. While China and Russia are strategic partners, so are China and Ukraine, which agreed in 2013 to preserve national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thus, for China, the only path forward is peace.