The Asia-Pacific region began to exhibit signs of easing major geopolitical tensions in late 2024, but has started to heat up again following President Trump’s return to power in the White House. During the ‘easing’ period, although low-level disputes persisted in the vast region, in the South China Sea, and in cross-strait relations, the risk of a conflict involving regional heavyweights was not imminent.

It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend may be fatal. For both, reassessing the conventional perception of U.S. diplomacy to explore the inner logic of Trump 2.0 foreign policy is a thorny task under the unpredictable new president.

U.S. allies in the long run are expected to pursue greater strategic autonomy, which means defining their national interests outside of American influence. Their policies toward China are therefore likely to continue evolving in a pragmatic and nuanced direction.

It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a random experiment. Yet that is the task that awaits us as we try to make sense of another Donald Trump era.

In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has imposed an across-the-board 10% tariff on goods from China, threatened a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and vowed similar measures against the European Union. His stated objective is to secure deals to halt the flow of drugs and unauthorized immigration into the United States, suggesting that tariffs will now be an instrument of border security. But trade barriers on this scale could destabilize global markets, drive up prices for American consumers, and potentially drag the US – and the world – into recession. In betting that the potential economic fallout is worth the gains in border security, Trump is gambling with America’s long-term influence and prosperity.

In a social media post on January 30, 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on BRICs countries unless they committed to “neither create

The incoming U.S. administration poses significant challenges, with repercussions extending beyond bilateral relations with China. Finding the proper balance between international exchanges and national security will unlock the door to scientific progress and the greater good of humanity.

Despite their differences, both China and the United States benefit from constructive connections and suffer from continued antagonism. The next few years will determine whether relations will develop into a new cold war or move toward a more equitable form of coexistence.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently stated that multipolarity is not only the preference, but the norm in the Trump administration—a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy. But unlike China’s globally engaged model, Rubio’s approach prioritizes U.S. interests, reflecting a more transactional and less globally engaged stance.

By trying to weaponize the U.S. tariffs on America's big trade partners against China, President Trump is basing bad economics on worse geopolitics. It could prove a costly prelude to a global downturn.