The early decades of the 21st Century have already seen a rapid shifting of global power, and today one could view the world’s relationships flowing through a four-way struggle for balance and dominance between the U.S., China, the EU, and Russia.

An estimate of the impact of the tariff war between China and the U.S. on the Chinese GDP in 2025 is presented. The dependence of the Chinese economy on its exports and, in particular, on its exports to the U.S. has been declining significantly over time. At the current tariff rates, a total cessation of bilateral trade is a real possibility. Under the assumption, the reduction in the rate of growth of Chinese GDP may be estimated to be 1.2%, other things being equal. Even though the announced target rate of Chinese growth is around 5%, the weighted average of the target rates of growth of the provincial-level units is 5.26%, indicating room for further increase. In addition, China is expected to launch additional domestic economic stimulus measures in response to the new tariffs, which should result in an additional growth of 0.5%. For 2025 as a whole, a rate of growth of around 4.5% (5.26 – 1.2 + 0.5) may be predicted.

China and Russia have different narratives in describing the anti-fascist victory‌ that ended World War II. Both nations made immense sacrifices that fundamentally shaped postwar reconstruction and reshaped global governance. So why do they continue to grapple?

The effect on history of the last one — the Trump populist revolution — remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Trump phenomenon, its support base and the logic of reform it represents, will not simply vanish.

Despite ongoing predictions of its decline, the U.S. dollar remains dominant—but rising debt, political instability, and market volatility are shaking investor confidence. If these trends persist, the world could shift toward a more fragmented and unstable multipolar monetary system.

Yes, they can. As the world’s two major powers in AI technology, the U.S. and China must work together to build capacity, contribute to AI for developing countries, bridge the digital divide and help achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

A broad vision is necessary if the United States wants to bring industry back home. The time has come for the it to reconcile its ambitions with on-the-ground realities. Washington should develop a sustainable strategy for managing relationships with other major powers, especially China.

U.S. President Trump has raised the tariff for Chinese imports to the U.S. to 125 per cent, while granting other countries a 90-day pause. (Photo: Artwork by Wi

The Indo-Pacific Strategy of Trump 2.0 remains unclear, although consensus has been reached on major power competition. If a new Indo-Pacific Strategy now emerges to build U.S. advantages against China, it will be designed to serve core MAGA goals.

With the Global South rising, Europe’s renewed emphasis on strategic independence from the United States could partially offset its relative decline in hard power and accelerate global multi-polarity.