The U.S.-dominated international system is unraveling as major powers and Global South countries reject American pressure and assert their independence. Without a shift toward cooperation and respect for multipolarity, the U.S. risks becoming the target of a hostile global realignment rather than leading a stable new order.

The extreme radicalism of the U.S. president’s thinking, coupled with the chaotic nature of his policies and their implementation, has significantly accelerated fragmentation and may even precipitate the collapse of the global governance structure.

Arbitrary policies introduced by the U.S. president have accelerated a shift of the international order and introduced new dynamics to relations between major powers. Most countries are reluctant to follow Trump’s lead because they have little to gain by doing so. Several are quietly thinking about ways to turn his disruptions into opportunity.

Eight decades have passed since the energy contained within an atom was used in warfare. Yet rather than suffering nuclear Armageddon, the world has achieved a surprising nuclear stability – so far. Equally remarkable, while nuclear technology has spread to many countries, only a small fraction have chosen to use it to develop weapons. The world has benefited from an effective nonproliferation regime, a set of rules, norms, and institutions that have discouraged – albeit haltingly and imperfectly – nuclear proliferation. But can it survive an era of rapid geopolitical shifts?

Step by step, Europe has flubbed their chances to remain relevant since China’s rise, and now it may be too late for the EU to regain its clout in the global order. Is the dream of a multipolar world coming to a premature end?

Despite the growing risk of economic recession at home, President Donald Trump has done nothing to prepare voters for the pain ahead. He is betting that the Federal Reserve will relax interest rates to mitigate the effect of tariffs, but monetary easing could also trigger an inflation spike.

Nearly five years ago, I warned that stagflation was only a broken supply chain away. A temporary outbreak did indeed occur in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 shock, as a surge in inflation coincided with an anemic recovery in global demand. But, like the pandemic, that economic disruption quickly subsided. Today, a more worrisome form of stagflation is in the offing, threatening severe and lasting consequences for the global economy and world financial markets.

China has taken a tough stance against US President Donald Trump, matching the last two rounds of US tariffs with tariffs of its own. The US tariff on goods from China is now 145%, while China’s is 125%. Why does China take such a position, and are there any off-ramps that would allow it to mitigate the costs of a prolonged trade war?

The early decades of the 21st Century have already seen a rapid shifting of global power, and today one could view the world’s relationships flowing through a four-way struggle for balance and dominance between the U.S., China, the EU, and Russia.

An estimate of the impact of the tariff war between China and the U.S. on the Chinese GDP in 2025 is presented. The dependence of the Chinese economy on its exports and, in particular, on its exports to the U.S. has been declining significantly over time. At the current tariff rates, a total cessation of bilateral trade is a real possibility. Under the assumption, the reduction in the rate of growth of Chinese GDP may be estimated to be 1.2%, other things being equal. Even though the announced target rate of Chinese growth is around 5%, the weighted average of the target rates of growth of the provincial-level units is 5.26%, indicating room for further increase. In addition, China is expected to launch additional domestic economic stimulus measures in response to the new tariffs, which should result in an additional growth of 0.5%. For 2025 as a whole, a rate of growth of around 4.5% (5.26 – 1.2 + 0.5) may be predicted.