We live in a world where geopolitical stability relies largely on deterrence. But how can we prove that deterrence works?

China has upped its international statesmanship, making waves by playing the middleman to a historic Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement. Working with other countries like India and Turkey, Beijing’s economic and diplomatic leverage can be a factor in bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

The Xi-Putin summit seems to have had little immediate impact on China-Russia relations, the war on Ukraine, on other major global issues. But the context of the meeting underscores the durability of the Beijing-Moscow alignment.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, wants to unite the global South and hopes to play a bigger role in the international community. Lacking inclusiveness, however, its strategies and tactics may run aground.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

The Russia-Ukraine war has shaken Europe’s energy security, triggering major adjustments in supply chains, consumption and renewable energy development. The conflict and its spillover effects suggest that a new economic cold war may already be underway.

The year 2023 represents a turning point. If economic realities guide global prospects, it will be a positive turnaround. If geopolitics will continue to penalize economic prospects, a negative inflection point is more likely.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forcing people to rethink the role of today’s international system in maintaining world peace. The system is currently out of balance, with one superpower and several other significant powers jostling for prominence.

China has provided some new thinking and inspiration for solving the international security puzzle. The answer involves major countries breaking through the constraints of outdated Western security theories and charting a course that is comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable.