We are living in a very different world. Shifting macroeconomic trends including diversification and second sourcing because of de-globalization and de-coupling have significant implications for the global economy. The strategic competition between the United States and China and other major geopolitical developments will fundamentally shape the world we live in.

The American economy will inevitably experience a Volcker-style contraction — think early 1980s — and it will have a global impact. Today’s inflation is stubborn and structural, and it will be virtually impossible to bring it down to 2 percent without tipping the economy into recession.

Doing the math, we find that Chinese GDP looks better and the United States looks worse for last year than has been reported in some quarters. The U.S. is paying a steep price with its bloated money supply. Now it’s facing interest rate hikes to control inflation.

Recently, the IMF downgraded global growth prospects, due to projected slowdowns in the U.S. and China. Negative prospects could be overcome with the right policies, such as trade cooperation. The current ones support stagflation.

Some things were expected; others were not. Smooth and orderly growth next year will depend on the Biden administration’s coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. The administration will have limited room to maneuver next year. The U.S. economy will grow at a modest rate, but volatility will remain.

With its internal contradictions, the “Biden Doctrine” is fostering Trump-style China wars, while its military overreach is paving the way to debt crises.

Why should the shared interest in middle class development in China and the United States be a key driving force in the bilateral relationship today?

China’s record 1st quarter performance will accelerate momentum and support global economic prospects. But new trade wars could once again derail global recovery.

The strengthening of the economy also means growing attractiveness for global investors. During the first quarter of 2021, FDI inflows to China accelerated tremendously, and there are good opportunities for U.S. investors, with no chance to lose.

The U.S. president’s idea for a summit on democracy is ill-conceived, ill-timed and likely to be ill-fated. Such an event can only distract from solving the challenges posed by the pandemic, the disruptions of extremists and a divided society.