His poorly conceived global tariff war will severely affect U.S. consumers, increase inflation, damage America’s reputation as a reliable partner and put the entire global trade system and practices that the U.S. once championed at risk.

Despite ongoing predictions of its decline, the U.S. dollar remains dominant—but rising debt, political instability, and market volatility are shaking investor confidence. If these trends persist, the world could shift toward a more fragmented and unstable multipolar monetary system.

A broad vision is necessary if the United States wants to bring industry back home. The time has come for the it to reconcile its ambitions with on-the-ground realities. Washington should develop a sustainable strategy for managing relationships with other major powers, especially China.

U.S. President Trump has raised the tariff for Chinese imports to the U.S. to 125 per cent, while granting other countries a 90-day pause. (Photo: Artwork by Wi

Donald Trump might briefly bend the rules of economics, but their core endures. Tariffs could spark a U.S. manufacturing revival, but it will be fleeting. And the fallout — higher costs of living, strained global ties and a fractured world economy — seems all but certain.

The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.

A great many negative consequences would follow a successful effort by the United States to pull the MFN rug out from under the world’s second-largest economy. If this key pillar of global trade is taken away, the collapse of the WTO itself could follow.

The recent wave of volatility reflects policy missteps, market overheating and a shifting global landscape. Short-term risks remain, and vigilance is required for both economic indicators and policy. We’re living through a time in which there is no substitute for calm and prudent analysis.

A combination of diverse factors, including interest rates, inflation, the fiscal sustainability crisis and judicial and political resistance, may reduce the flexibility of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies.

It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a random experiment. Yet that is the task that awaits us as we try to make sense of another Donald Trump era.