With a lucrative arms contract and a strategic shift toward Saudi Arabia Israel, the US consolidated long-standing alliances at the likely expense of warming relations with Iran. But the new president has shifted his ground quickly on more than one issue, and so his Middle East policy still should be viewed as a work in progress.

Even after the city’s anticipated retaking, jihadist ideas advocated by ISIS carry certain ideological appeal, which will not go away because of the group’s military defeat in the region or the deaths of its leaders. The chaotic environments of Iraq and Syria offer a rich seedbed for continued instability, recruiting and violence.

Either scenario is possible, depending on what investigators discover about who was really responsible for the gas attack. Whatever the outcome, big-power cooperation against terrorism has been weakened, and IS terrorists likely were the only ones who were actually cheering amid the explosions of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

With America further withdrawing during Trump’s presidency, the Middle East will have new geopolitical landscape with new complexity. It should be clear that China’s growing economic relations with the region should benefit the region, though how soon and how much this relationship can enhance peace or stability remains to be seen.

The anticipated defeat of the Islamic State is not likely to mean calm in the region, since thousands of disaffected jihadist fighters will be scattered and looking for new opportunities to spread their ideology. Meanwhile, the newly energized Kurds – key players in the war against IS – will have political demands that will be difficult to satisfy, and may lead to new conflicts.

As demands of 9/11 victim families get traction and America’s for imported energy declines, U.S. foreign policy is being dominated by “inward-looking election-year motivation”. If that continues into next year, no matter who is president, U.S. anti-terror strategy is unlikely to continue to enjoy full support from Saudi Arabia. With traditional allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel beginning to engage Russia in private, the U.S. could lose its dominant position in Middle East affairs.

Constructive mediation rather than military intervention is urgently needed, but first all parties must be realistic about the situation on the ground, and open to a political transition through negotiation.

Presently, public sentiment to minimize the risk of terror is on the rise, one of the factors prompting the US to reassess its strategic goals in the Middle East. The result is a more united front in the war against terrorism.

While helping the people in the Middle East fleeing from conflict zones, the more important thing is to address the refugee issue from the root. The UN must play a leading role in promoting reconciliation in the wake of failed and arrogant US policies in the region, so that the Middle East can move toward stability that will allow its people enjoy a normal life.