The upcoming Trump-Xi summit may yield few concrete breakthroughs, with much about both the substance and presentation of the meeting still uncertain. Maintaining the relative stability achieved at their last meeting in Beijing may be the central outcome as the two sides navigate continuing differences over trade, rare earths, artificial intelligence and other issues.

Resuming genuine cooperation is the first step for any party that wants to pursue a stable and healthy relationship in the long-run. China and the United States must continue to carry out the spirit enshrined in the so-called San Francisco Vision.

Five critical challenges present themselves in the post-San Francisco summit era: Taiwan, geopolitics, dialogue mechanisms, American elections and the U.S. view of strategic competition. Be prepared for a potentially bumpy ride in 2024.

While some good things have emerged, the foundation is not yet strong enough. Relations may be warming but no one is scorched by the heat. The overall temperature remains cool. Washington won’t be changing its policy of competition, and political rhetoric during the coming U.S. presidential election year will only add complexity.

The Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco was undoubtedly going to lead to new developments in cross-Pacific relations, but one month after the meeting the overall climate between the two rivals has yet to change.

One month out from the Xi-Biden talks in San Francisco, the world may have witnessed a major turning point in China’s international affairs - if the U.S. plays along.

“A Better Biden-Xi Summit?” was the title of my commentary last month, and the emphasis was on the question mark. With good reason: Last year’

China and the United States have been working in the right direction since the Bali summit. However, they still face many challenges. Next year is the 45th anniversary of China-U.S. diplomatic ties. What better time to bolster the foundation of peaceful coexistence and inject some certainty into a turbulent world?

The summit meeting of presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden was an opportunity to redefine the narrative, find balance and set a precedent for a more predictable framework in which global challenges can be tackled together. The world is watching.

Two presidents focused on restoring communication, expanding dialogue and managing risks, and they reached many points of agreement. But the United States is entering a contentious political campaign season, which is sure to include an increase in strident anti-China rhetoric.