China’s leaders present peace as “inevitable,” yet Southeast Asia’s response is uneven, marked by cautious optimism in some quarters and deep mistrust in others. With Beijing placing neighborhood diplomacy at the heart of its foreign policy, the credibility of its peace promise is best judged through Southeast Asian perceptions and experiences.

Indonesia, born from its 1945 struggle for independence, has grown into Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a significant global player, yet remains under-discussed in high-level political discourse. Despite ongoing challenges, China and Indonesia specifically have significant potential for cooperation in trade and technology.

The military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3 and the SCO summit in Tianjin elicited a profound psychological response in the United States and other Western countries. Debates over China’s strategic ascent and the prospect of a continental alignment have intensified.

Whoever emerges as leader in the coming election within the Liberal Democratic Party will decide whether Japan will take a path into the future of constructive regional engagement or one that further entrenches antagonism.

Maintaining peace and stability in Asia and adjacent regions — fostering friendly and cooperative relations — is essential for China’s own security and prosperity. The focus must be on peace, development and building a community with a shared future.

The results of the election in Japan’s House of Councillors highlight a key trend: An era of political fragmentation in Japanese party politics has arrived, and populist political forces are growing.

In April 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted a five-day diplomatic tour of Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia from April 14 to 18. The strategically timed visit, Xi’s first overseas trip of the year, occurred amid escalating trade tensions driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on over 70 countries, including China and the three nations Xi visited. The tour aimed to reinforce China’s economic and diplomatic influence in the region, counter U.S. trade policies, and solidify partnerships within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Quad has evolved into a coalition with increasing military cooperation and shared concerns over China’s rising power, though India’s reluctance to fully engage in a military alliance limits the group's effectiveness in countering China's influence in the Asia-Pacific.

It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend may be fatal. For both, reassessing the conventional perception of U.S. diplomacy to explore the inner logic of Trump 2.0 foreign policy is a thorny task under the unpredictable new president.

The latest moves by Trump’s administration are a sharp pivot into new, seemingly accommodating foreign policy. Would less U.S. presence around the world embolden China to make aggressive moves into contested spaces?