Strategic adjustments, characterized by economic decoupling, high-tech restrictions and military posturing in the Indo-Pacific region, will transform the bilateral relationship and the shape of global security itself.

An extreme imbalance of power appears likely to emerge in the future. Donald Trump’s personal attitude will be a critical factor influencing the sensitive political dynamics of the island, and doubts about the reliability of U.S. support will continue to grow.

Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party faces mounting political turmoil and scandal, weakening its ability to govern despite recent electoral wins. At the same time, doubts about U.S. security support under Trump leave Taiwan increasingly vulnerable amid rising tensions with China.

If the Trump administration remains oblivious to the dangers and provocations of Lai Ching-te’s policies, the confrontation between Beijing and the United States over the island will intensify.

‌Here are some suggestions for promoting peace, stability and development in the Asia Pacific region. For starters, to avoid bloc politics and confrontation or even a new cold war in the Asia Pacific, China, the U.S., Russia, Japan and India should actively develop new dialogues and exchanges and build on existing ones.

The Philippines has played a dynamic role in the Indo-Pacific as of late, now drawing the ire of Beijing by accepting U.S.-made defense systems in the northernmost reaches of its islands. While this may come off like a geopolitical power play, the Philippines still has steadfast commitments to its interests in its own backyard that deserve examination.

America’s China policy, characterized by major-power competition, has had a subtle yet significant influence on the Taiwan question. The next U.S. administration, whether led by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, is likely make changes. The devil will be in the details.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.

In small but steady degrees, the United States is undercutting its stated commitment to “one China” by subtly modifying its words. The meanings it has added in diplomatic discourse do not promote confidence that it will continue to honor the agreements it has made. On the contrary, U.S. actions belie those agreements.

Derek Grossman is a senior defense analyst at RAND focused on a range of national security policy and Indo-Pacific security issues. He closely tracks intensifying U.S.-China competition throughout the region, including Asia and Oceania. Grossman was interviewed recently by Wang Zhijin, a reporter for China-US Focus, at the recent Xiangshan Forum in Beijing.