The U.S.-Israel strike on Iran lacks a clear legal basis or credible justification and represents a high-risk gamble by the Trump administration. Despite early military success, the operation faces uncertain prospects, including limited chances of regime change and the risk of prolonged conflict.

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes has created leadership uncertainty in Tehran, weakened Iran’s regional network of allies, and accelerated shifts in Middle Eastern power dynamics. For China, the conflict threatens energy supplies and Belt and Road investments while potentially expanding Beijing’s diplomatic role if it maintains neutrality and engagement with all sides.

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza reflects accelerating recalibration in the Middle East, as U.S. military maneuvers are giving way to economic development promoted by the Arab states, China and the Global South.

As evidenced by complicity in the Gaza genocide, the U.S.-Israel military symbiosis in the Middle East is increasingly shunned by the international community. What the region needs is aggressive economic development.

China’s approach to conflict mediation is characterized by what scholars call “quasi-mediation diplomacy,” in which Beijing emphasizes rhetoric and symbolic gestures while avoiding costly commitments. Recent cases show that China prefers strategic ambiguity and bureaucratic caution over assuming a high-profile mediator role.

China declined an opportunity to join Iran in its June 2025 confrontation with the United States and Israel. Though Beijing enjoys good relations with the Iranian regime, competing alignments and other considerations convinced PRC policymakers to adopt a low profile during the twelve-day war.

The unity of the Gulf states, their diversified partnerships and their degree of assertiveness — along with China’s deepened relationships in the region — may constrain U.S. dominance. Even so, China must devise policies to navigate the unexpected strategic challenges it might encounter.

China’s efforts to mediate between various Palestinian groups is a first step toward bridging the divide between Palestine and Israel. The U.S. must also take ownership of its responsibility and similarly employ its significant influence over Israel.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are undergoing transformations in which China can play an important role. Premier Li Qiang’s visit reinforced them by focusing on trade, business, investment and diplomacy. This reflects China’s broader policy prioritizing economic cooperation over geopolitical entanglement.

Many people in the West tend to view the expansion of China’s influence in the Middle East through the lens of great power rivalry. China rejects this concept, and its diplomatic efforts have helped to prevent the escalation of regional crises.