Relations with the United States are, for China, the most important bilaterally, while those with Japan are among the most important for the East Asian neighborhood. But worries that each of these relationships could drift apart again are real. There’s a limited window of opportunity to get things right.

The common interests of China, Japan and South Korea far outweigh their differences. They share highly integrated economic networks and industrial chains, and so there is an urgent need to prevent the window of opportunity for dialogue from closing. The United States is not making it easy.

Four key opportunities present themselves in Northeast Asia, and it's important to grasp them while we can. Compared with the various major structural challenges in the region, the opportunities are few and small. But there are signs that the situation is improving, albeit slowly.

As close neighbors, China and Japan must seriously explore ways to coexist peacefully. The only way to build a robust relationship, as Premier Li Qiang has said, is for both sides to focus on the long-term picture and build on positive elements.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, wants to unite the global South and hopes to play a bigger role in the international community. Lacking inclusiveness, however, its strategies and tactics may run aground.

The U.S. and China’s growing rivalry was bound to affect global relationships on multiple levels. Already having established the AUKUS program, the U.S. is also pursuing an adjacent Japan-Philippine-U.S. alliance which will add another security barrier in the Pacific, a difficult fence to raise in a region where many countries rely heavily on China for trade.

Japan seeks to further develop its partnerships with ASEAN countries and neighboring states to reassess its place globally amidst tensions between the U.S. and China.

A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

China and Japan have deepened their economic interdependence, but they have a long way to go in building political trust, especially in the security realm. The two countries should get beyond the old concept that starts with military deterrence. It is no longer productive.

Generally speaking, the China-U.S.-Japan trilateral relationship is in a state of turbulence and serious imbalance. The Russia-Ukraine war and the latest Taiwan crisis have further eroded stability. Here is what’s needed now.