With U.S. encouragement, Northeast Asia has seen unprecedented cooperation between Japan and South Korea in recent years. But rising economic frictions, domestic political changes in Japan and especially South Korea, and evolving U.S. global priorities could impede or even reverse recent gains.

The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.

The election of Donald Trump to a second term signals that the United States will temporarily step back from the next wave of globalization. As a consequence, Japan’s future security will lie in its deep integration into the processes of globalization and regional integration. This raises an opportunity for improving China-Japan relations.

From Shinzo Abe’s concept of escaping the postwar regime to Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of postwar political settlement, the trajectory of Japan’s political evolution is becoming increasingly apparent. For both China and the United States, responding to a Japan that embraces strategic autonomy poses a significant strategic challenge.

The new Japanese prime minister wants to reassert Japan’s standing as a regional power, which will challenge the expectations of Washington elites and further rattle a region that is seeking to skirt the dynamics of great power competition.

A positive peace is needed, one that weaves prosperity and security together for all. The DPRK’s economic connection to the world via Russia is a potential game changer that could reframe possibilities for the Korean Peninsula, and with it impact the dynamics of the North Asia region. Regional leaders should take up the challenge.

China-Japan-ROK cooperation is not aimed at the United States, and it should not be constrained. The sustainability of future trilateral cooperation by China, Japan and the ROK ultimately depends on the continual development of internal dynamics of the three countries.

Fabricating a strategic architecture by uniting Japan, the Philippines and Australia with the United States will only accelerate the transformation of the region into opposing camps and drag the big powers into a dangerous Thucydides trap.

Over the 45 years since the China-Japan Peace and Friendship Treaty, the economic scale of the two countries has shifted. In addition, their economic structures have evolved, moving beyond an era of asymmetric dependence to a new phase characterized by mutual reliance.

Relations with the United States are, for China, the most important bilaterally, while those with Japan are among the most important for the East Asian neighborhood. But worries that each of these relationships could drift apart again are real. There’s a limited window of opportunity to get things right.