By January 2026, the first year of the second four-year—and constitutionally final—term of U.S. President Donald Trump was complete. This initial quarter of his tenure has jolted the world, unnerving the global community on economic, trade, and security matters while weakening the post-war international order. The resulting shocks reverberate across the international system, amplified by the scale of U.S. power and global entanglement. This disruption is unfolding in real time.

Over the past year, territorial expansion, military intervention, economic coercion, resource plundering and withdrawal from international agreements have become hallmarks of Donald Trump's imperialism. He is expected to continue to pursue more in the days to come.

The Trump administration has merged state authority with private interests, treating political power as a monetizable platform rather than a system of public governance. From Beijing’s perspective, this validates China’s pragmatic approach to legitimacy and positions the U.S. as a conglomerate of private interests rather than a traditional state.

Maximum pressure, transactional thinking and an emphasis on spheres of influence all define Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy and give concrete form to his “America first” ideology. In a world undergoing turbulent change, the impact and destructive effect of this approach demand vigilance.

The 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum was held at the Beijing International Convention Center Sept. 18-19. Professor Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, spoke with China-US Focus editor Huang Zhijin and assessed the trajectory of Trump 2.0’s China policy. The transcript below has been edited for clarity.

The legacy of Donald Trump may endure if only because he triggered a new global order through the law of unintended consequences. He has set in motion a major power shift in which China — aligning with India, Russia and key trade blocs — will become the global captain over the next 10 to 20 years.

The logic underpinning the U.S. president’s approach to war and peace looks at international conflicts as being subject to transactional pricing mechanisms. In the short run, this strategy can yield results, but its long-term sustainability remains deeply uncertain.

Second round of Trump-Putin engagement incorporates elements of strategic deterrence but has failed to resolve the conflict. That’s because the war reflects a deeper struggle over institutions, grand strategy and competing value systems.

US Vice President J.D. Vance recently tried to cast President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as a wildly successful example of the “Trump Doctrine.” According to Vance, the doctrine is simple: you identify a problem that threatens US interests, which “you try to aggressively diplomatically solve.” If diplomacy fails, “you use overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict.”

China-U.S. competition is fueled by overall national strength. In addition to growing its own hard and soft power, it should pay attention to the evolving politics in the United States, as well as the changes in attitude by U.S. allies, and work to create a united front around the world.