Second round of Trump-Putin engagement incorporates elements of strategic deterrence but has failed to resolve the conflict. That’s because the war reflects a deeper struggle over institutions, grand strategy and competing value systems.

US Vice President J.D. Vance recently tried to cast President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as a wildly successful example of the “Trump Doctrine.” According to Vance, the doctrine is simple: you identify a problem that threatens US interests, which “you try to aggressively diplomatically solve.” If diplomacy fails, “you use overwhelming military power to solve it and then you get the hell out of there before it ever becomes a protracted conflict.”

Amid the uncertainty of U.S. domestic affairs and the evolving international order, the transatlantic relationship — despite its apparent stability — is likely to experience undercurrents of discontent in the years ahead.

Many in the West think Sino-Russian ties are the key to a resolution of the conflict. But this is a significant strategic misjudgment. Any durable peace in Ukraine must be found through negotiations between the parties directly involved.

The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

If Europe fails to awaken and respond to its humiliating rejection by the United States, it will lose not only its seat at the table for Ukraine-Russia peace talks but also its status as a leading player in the future multipolar world.

Ukraine crisis lingers as the transatlantic alliance faces an uncertain future. Meanwhile, the international order is undergoing a profound restructuring as the sand shifts under traditional commitments by the United States and as Europe seeks greater autonomy.

The war is unlikely to end according to the timeline of the incoming U.S. president. Imposing his Ukraine plan on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could give Russia an opportunity to rearm, thereby raising hurdles for the United States and its NATO allies.

Despite his unpredictability, Donald Trump seems committed to the current strategic trajectory. But China has gained a deeper understanding and accumulated significant experience. It will likely approach America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with greater confidence and composure in Trump’s second term.

From Shinzo Abe’s concept of escaping the postwar regime to Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of postwar political settlement, the trajectory of Japan’s political evolution is becoming increasingly apparent. For both China and the United States, responding to a Japan that embraces strategic autonomy poses a significant strategic challenge.