Peace and stability in the South China Sea hinge on U.S. behavior. It should seek peaceful means to settle maritime disputes rather than playing by its own skewed interpretation of the rules.

With Vietnam assuming the ASEAN chairmanship in 2020, and the US entering a contentious presidential election amid growing anti-China sentiment in Washington, Malaysia is betting on growing efforts to constrain Beijing’s maritime ambitions.

Beneath the surface of improving political ties lie persistent concerns over Chinese strategic investments in the Philippines.

Philippine president Duterte and the US-trained Philippine military have long been at war concerning the country’s amicability with China. Now, a Beijing-friendly official has come into power in the coast guard, tipping the balance in Duterte’s favor.

As military navigation operations have become more diverse and widespread, America’s motives have become clear. It wants to drive wedges between countries and reinforce its Indo-Pacific strategy.

With China’s recent deployment of its coast guard and Maritime Militia Forces to neighboring waters like the South China Sea, the US will continue to contest the Middle Kingdom’s expanding influence in the region with an increasing presence of its own maritime military forces.

Several valuable lessons can be drawn from the incident, including the importance of remaining calm and focusing on solutions. But more formal mechanisms are needed.

Recent statements by the EU on the issue of the South China Sea only serve to fan the flames of the dispute and put the valuable EU-China relationship at risk. The EU should reject manipulation by the United States, as well as internal anti-Chinese sentiment, to clear the way for ASEAN’s leadership in resolving the issue.

The status of the conflict in the South China Sea has moved from concerning to critical, as reflected by the changing ASEAN rhetoric concerning the topic. The future of the South China Sea remains dependent on how China and other claimants proceed.

The normalization of U.S. Coast Guard presence in the South China Sea is likely to lead to greater competition and interference. Far from keeping the peace, U.S. intrusions into the region are deliberate exercises of power that aim to assert control.