An analysis of the current situation and its possible evolution under the Biden administration suggests that the U.S. will attempt to consolidate its influence over littoral states and attempt to crash the China-led COC negotiations.

When Joe Biden moves into the White House, his geopolitical signals will be closely watched by China, whose rise in the western Pacific is a historical necessity. Yet even a softer U.S. will try to undermine it, especially with nations that nurse maritime disputes.

Over a century ago, tangled alliances in Europe were tested with the onset of the First World War. Today, the converging interests of Asia’s middle powers, U.S. regional allies, and China in the South China Sea threaten to provide the world a redux.

Recently, A Legal Critique of the Award of the Arbitral Tribunal in the Matter of the South China Sea Arbitration (hereinafter referred to as the Critique) was jointly completed by National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS) and FIETTA LLP.

Over the last four years, the Philippines has proven to be the U.S.’s most cooperative partner in Asia, embodied by famously warm relations between Presidents Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte. The Philippines’ close proximity to China and it’s disputed waters makes it an important military ally to the U.S, and with a new President stepping into the White House, Biden and Duterte will have to establish a new diplomatic relationship between the two countries.

What message was conveyed? Nobody is quite sure. While the top American diplomat’s visit to Hanoi will surely affect relations with the U.S., Vietnam doesn’t want to alienate China.

Japan’s Prime Minister hosted a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that pinpointed the rise of China and the disputes in the South China Sea a focal point.

For now and the foreseeable future, gaming will be intensified, making compromise difficult. It will likely remain peaceful and manageable on the whole, but uncertainties are growing.

Already hotly contested, the South China Sea is seeing an uptick in movement since certain European powers have gotten involved. It remains to be seen how far Europe is willing to go in shaping the maritime disputes along its preferences and provisions of international law.

Over a century ago, World War I showed the world how crowded alliances and geopolitical tension could ignite into all-out war. Now in the 21st Century, posturing on both sides of the Pacific mirror the mistakes made by yesterday’s empires.