For now and the foreseeable future, gaming will be intensified, making compromise difficult. It will likely remain peaceful and manageable on the whole, but uncertainties are growing.

Already hotly contested, the South China Sea is seeing an uptick in movement since certain European powers have gotten involved. It remains to be seen how far Europe is willing to go in shaping the maritime disputes along its preferences and provisions of international law.

Over a century ago, World War I showed the world how crowded alliances and geopolitical tension could ignite into all-out war. Now in the 21st Century, posturing on both sides of the Pacific mirror the mistakes made by yesterday’s empires.

The important waterway could be the first tile to fall in a Sino-U.S. conflict. In openly ramping up an interventionist policy and increasing its pressure on China, the United States is increasing the risk of a military confrontation.

Only mechanisms that support dialogue in the face of potential confrontation will do the job. If a military conflict occurs, no matter how limited, the door to a protracted cold war will be thrown open.

Since the 1970s, the US has tread a fine line of pursuing neutrality on claims to the South China Sea. The Trump administration, however, looks set to upend that policy.

Any attempt by Donald Trump to bolster his chances at reclaiming the White House by starting a limited war with China is not likely to work. It’s complicated.

In a word, no. China has never recognized the arbitration under the UNCLOS treaty as valid. Meanwhile, the United States continues to poison relations by opposing everything China does.

The United States is increasing pressure on China in the South China Sea, by sending two of its largest ships into the area. Beijing has no alternative but to respond in kind.

As COVID-19 continues to stretch nations’ resources thin all over the world, South China Sea disputes continue, emboldening ASEAN to set the rules for how these disputes will be resolved.