Through a campaign to smear China, the Marcos government has managed to alienate itself from other countries in Southeast Asia. Working hand in glove with the United States, it will only find itself increasingly isolated from other ASEAN member states.

The polemics over a so-called “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China to manage a bitter row over the South China Sea may confound future diplomatic efforts to handle the spat. China sees Philippine commitment as fleeting,

Amid a shifting foreign policy in the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., maritime tensions in the South China Sea have escalated, prompting the Philippines to join the newly-formed Quadrilateral security grouping, dubbed the 'Squad,' to intensify security cooperation. While Marcos Jr. emphasizes diplomatic solutions, tensions persist due to opposing interpretations of past agreements with China, potentially complicating regional dynamics.

The Philippines under Duterte shifted toward a more neutral position between the U.S. and China, but now under the leadership of Marcos Jr, a more U.S. friendly approach has given rise to more flashpoint issues concerning the Philippines accommodations of U.S. military.

America is holding ASEAN countries back from a central role in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, but their self-confidence is growing. It’s not lost on anyone that Southeast Asia’s strategic position has not changed in the minds of U.S. decision-makers. Meanwhile, China offers welcome alternatives.

Fabricating a strategic architecture by uniting Japan, the Philippines and Australia with the United States will only accelerate the transformation of the region into opposing camps and drag the big powers into a dangerous Thucydides trap.

The doctrine of “assertive transparency” has dramatically escalated South China Sea tensions. Among other things, it has paved the way to the alignment of the U.S., Japan and Philippines in the impending April summit.

Confrontations over the South China Sea are startling events that bring up the potential for heated conflict, but disagreements in troubled waters have ripple effects that lead to economic problems as well.

America’s actions that are directly detrimental to China’s interests render China’s cooperation in some regions irrelevant. The good news is that China and the U.S. have agreed to strengthen cooperation. But to ensure concrete results, the U.S. needs to do more.

In 2024 and beyond, the two nations must strive to understand the other’s mindset. Concerted efforts will be needed to mitigate risks and enhance stability. Both should refrain from taking unilateral actions against the other worldwide based on perceptions of maritime security.