For the past 12 months, the waters of the South China Sea have been fairly tranquil. However, long-time, and hence jaded, observers of one of Asia’s most intractable disputes understand the cyclical nature of tensions; and also know that given the unchanging central drivers of the conflict and the absence of collective political will to palliate those drivers and negotiate an equitable solution, periods of calm are invariably followed by strong tempests.

While Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics have dominated the news cycle since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, China’s activities in the South China Sea have drawn close lessons from the Kremlin’s playbook. Beijing’s embrace of the concept of modern hybrid warfare has been part of the regional power’s calculated bid to blur the lines between ‘war’ and ‘peace’ in pursuit of its maritime sovereignty claims and avoid outright provocation of its rivals – particularly the United States.

The current fuzzy state of geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific has prompted some middle powers in the region to explore new ties. In the foreseeable future, as long as the US remains in the Asia -Pacific, and China sticks to its peaceful foreign policy, US allies and partners will be reluctant to build informal or formal alliances.

After his first year in office, Rodrigo Duterte has arrived at three key realizations: first, it has become increasingly clear he doesn’t have the power to unilaterally shape his country’s defense policy; second is how far he can distance the Philippines from the U.S.; and third, expanding cooperation between the Philippine military and the Pentagon will constrain Duterte’s outreach to China.

Despite some hidden troubles in the relationship, by establishing effective channels of communication, prudently dealing with “provocations” and actively formulating an “agenda of cooperation”, Beijing and Washington have sustained a relationship that could have been swamped in uncertainties in the recent US transfer of power.

China calls the move a "serious political and military provocation."

Both China and the US have begun to deliberate on ways of dealing with each other in the next few decades, and are willing to set a positive course for the future development of bilateral ties over the long term.

Operations in contested waters continue but are no longer publicised, admiral says

The fruitful Xi-Trump meeting at Mar-a-Lago and the Mattis speech at the Shangri-la Dialogue give us reason to believe that “freedom of navigation” may not be the totality of the US’ South China Sea policy or that of its Asia-Pacific strategy. China-US relations are still on the track of steady development.

The first meeting of the biannual bilateral consultation mechanism to manage the South China Sea disputes, which is hoped to have a positive cascading effect on the early conclusion for a regional Code of Conduct on the disputed sea. Hints of possible cooperation in non-traditional security can be gleaned from President Duterte’s interest to welcome Chinese presence in the Sulu Sea to help address maritime piracy and armed sea robbery.