China’s diplomatic forays into Southeast Asia are periodic and predictable. Yet Premier Li Keqiang may have his work cut out for him in upcoming forays to the region. Shifts in diplomatic outlook on the part of both the U.S. and China are changing the rules as tensions arise and polarize the region.

The 32nd ASEAN Summit, held in Singapore on April 27 and 28, saw the ASEAN adopting tough language against America’s trade protectionism, while pursuing further its blossoming relations with China.

On Wednesday 17 January, the U.S. Navy conducted a much anticipated “freedom of navigation operation” (FONOP) in the South China Sea when the guided-missile destroyer USS Hopper sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal.

A reasonable progression could be from a “neighborhood community with a shared destiny” to “an Asia-Pacific community with a shared future”, to a “community with a shared future for mankind”.

US President Donald Trump is making his first official visit to Asia. The 12-day tour of five countries will focus on easing doubts about the reliability of the United States and its leader. Given the challenges and possibilities for the US in Asia, that is an unambitious goal.

The Chinese diasporas in Southeast Asia are market-dominant minorities, and thus often a target for populist persecution. Will China, which has so often expressed solidarity with overseas Chinese, step up to defend them?

National reconciliation does not just impact Myanmar’s political and economic interests; it is also important to China. As the largest neighbor and sharing the longest border with Myanmar, China has and will continue to play a prominent role in the nation’s stalled peace process..

Given their economic and geographic proximity to China, Southeast Asian countries are beginning to warm up to the Chinese renminbi. At this stage, however, it would be premature for Southeast Asian governments to do much more than they have already done.

Recent developments are highlighting how competition over shared water resources is a major contributory factor to the growing geopolitical discord in Asia. China’s “territorial grab” in the South China Sea has been accompanied by a quieter “freshwater grab” in transnational river basins. Reengineering trans-boundary water flows is integral to China’s strategy to employ power, control, influence, and fashion a strongly Sino-centric Asia. The upsurge of resource and territorial disputes has underscored the looming dangers. Various developments indeed are highlighting the linkage between water and peace.

President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that the United States will quit the Trans-Pacific Partnership kills the stillborn deal. For the countries of Southeast Asia who joined this U.S. led pact, it is a moment of reflection over their policy choices, making them seek accommodation with a more certain China rather than a wavering U.S.