Prohibitive penalties on the poorest countries threaten to destabilize these fragile economies and deprive tens of millions of poor people of their livelihoods. Trump’s tariffs are not only unjustified, but also immoral. And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

The second Trump administration has combined aggressive diplomatic engagement with a confrontational trade policy that alienates allies and risks triggering a global recession, despite legitimate concerns about America’s industrial decline. While Trump's trade agenda aims to restructure global commerce to favor U.S. interests, its unilateral execution and failure to build a coalition undermine its effectiveness and may isolate the U.S. rather than restore its manufacturing strength.

The U.S.’ expanded tariffs under the second Trump administration are reshaping global supply chains by imposing steep, targeted duties and pressuring Asian economies to invest in American production. As manufacturing shifts away from China and its neighbors, countries like Mexico may benefit, while India risks being left behind.

The U.S. president’s policies have fueled deglobalization and disrupted the existing international order, but they have also pushed countries around the world to explore new models of cooperation and foster new approaches to trade.

The EU and U.S. have agreed to a tactical cease-fire, not a strategic settlement. As long as Europe pursues strategic autonomy and Washington replaces rules-based multilateralism with transactional deals, fresh disputes are inevitable.

Since the U.S.-China trade war began in April, Chinese companies have faced high tariffs and economic uncertainty, prompting them to reshore production to the U.S., shift manufacturing to developing countries, and diversify into other markets. Despite higher costs and regulatory challenges, they are balancing supply chain stability with expansion in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe to maintain their low-cost business models.

Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true. That ancient proverb comes to mind when considering the eagerness of America’s trade partners around the world to negotiate deals with US President Donald Trump’s administration. Four countries already have, with Indonesia the latest to do so – and possibly the first to regret it.

The intent of the United States was to coerce China into making concessions. But this didn’t work. China was only inspired to reach out to other trading partners and become more independent through home-grown technological development.

Trump’s ‘America First’ protectionist tactics are supposed to create advantages for the U.S. in trade and freeze out China in theory, but expect that the world needs America’s consumers to continue. New connections forming amid the trade war could mean instead, the U.S. is left out in the cold.

If the United States can adapt flexibly and prioritize consensus with its trading partners, it may solidify its economic dominance. Otherwise, persistent high tariffs risk deepening global trade fragmentation and will challenge America’s long-term influence.