Despite de-escalation in Geneva, trillions of dollars may have been lost in the unwarranted trade wars.

A trade deal between China and the United States is nowhere in sight. The mountain of issues could take a long time and enormous effort to resolve. It’s certainly not going to happen in three or four weeks, as Trump has suggested. More likely, it will be months, if not years.

History may rhyme, but the economic drama now unfolding in the United States defies historical reason. When the US Federal Reserve’s technocrats collide with an inexperienced and capricious presidential administration, conventional macroeconomic tools quickly become impotent.

The recent Financial Times editorial by economist Michael Pettis, in which he advocates for U.S. capital controls to achieve balance in its external accounts, is emblematic of a deeper and more troubling reality: American economic policy has entered a conceptual dead end.

Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” policy is intended to push back against globalization, but its inherent structural problems will only accelerate the trend of “de-Americanization” worldwide.

The Trump administration will continue to sway as it seeks new equilibrium amid stress-relieving turbulence. Historical patterns can be seen, but so can evolving realities. No one knows if America will find another escape route.

There is no winner in a trade war, because sabotaging trade hurts both sides. “Killing 1,000 enemies while losing 800 of one’s own” — a Chinese saying for a scenario in which the cost does not justify the gain — is applicable in this case.

Despite the growing risk of economic recession at home, President Donald Trump has done nothing to prepare voters for the pain ahead. He is betting that the Federal Reserve will relax interest rates to mitigate the effect of tariffs, but monetary easing could also trigger an inflation spike.

Tariffs and a trade war are definitely going in the wrong direction. Trump and his team should cast aside all illusions that China will capitulate and that the U.S. can survive the tariff war. The only wise choice is to dump the tariffs and come to the table for talks.

Speculation about a "Grand Bargain" between Trump and Xi persists, but deep divisions within Washington, Trump’s erratic leadership, and Beijing’s long-term strategic patience make a major breakthrough unlikely. Even if a meeting occurs, structural mistrust and political instability on both sides suggest any deal would be fragile at best.