An estimate of the impact of the tariff war between China and the U.S. on the Chinese GDP in 2025 is presented. The dependence of the Chinese economy on its exports and, in particular, on its exports to the U.S. has been declining significantly over time. At the current tariff rates, a total cessation of bilateral trade is a real possibility. Under the assumption, the reduction in the rate of growth of Chinese GDP may be estimated to be 1.2%, other things being equal. Even though the announced target rate of Chinese growth is around 5%, the weighted average of the target rates of growth of the provincial-level units is 5.26%, indicating room for further increase. In addition, China is expected to launch additional domestic economic stimulus measures in response to the new tariffs, which should result in an additional growth of 0.5%. For 2025 as a whole, a rate of growth of around 4.5% (5.26 – 1.2 + 0.5) may be predicted.

The effect on history of the last one — the Trump populist revolution — remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Trump phenomenon, its support base and the logic of reform it represents, will not simply vanish.

His poorly conceived global tariff war will severely affect U.S. consumers, increase inflation, damage America’s reputation as a reliable partner and put the entire global trade system and practices that the U.S. once championed at risk.

Thanks to President Trump’s new round of international tariffs, the global economy is now at the risk of unraveling. This is not just the result of plunging world trade and investment, but of soaring U.S. military expenditures.

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries will be remembered as a man-made economic tsunami. Many are already comparing it to President Herbert Hoover’s 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which slashed global trade by 66% in five years and deepened the Great Depression. Trump’s tariffs – most of which have been abruptly paused for 90 days – have rattled financial markets, prompting analysts to warn that the United States could enter a recession in 2025.

A broad vision is necessary if the United States wants to bring industry back home. The time has come for the it to reconcile its ambitions with on-the-ground realities. Washington should develop a sustainable strategy for managing relationships with other major powers, especially China.

U.S. President Trump has raised the tariff for Chinese imports to the U.S. to 125 per cent, while granting other countries a 90-day pause. (Photo: Artwork by Wi

Donald Trump might briefly bend the rules of economics, but their core endures. Tariffs could spark a U.S. manufacturing revival, but it will be fleeting. And the fallout — higher costs of living, strained global ties and a fractured world economy — seems all but certain.

After a decade of deglobalization and U.S. geopolitics, globalization is no longer at crossroads, but unraveling. The longer this plunge prevails, the greater will be its costs.

The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.