China’s new export licensing system strengthens its control over key rare earth elements, deepening supply chain risks. Although new processing facilities are emerging abroad, they won’t soon offset China’s dominance, prolonging global uncertainty.

To Donald Trump’s surprise, China showed no fear of tariffs. Instead, it launched a powerful tit-for-tat counteroffensive that caused the United States to back off. Trump’s pattern of bullying, his obsession with bellicose showmanship, his love of flattery and his attempts to instill fear are on display for all to see.

Despite de-escalation in Geneva, trillions of dollars may have been lost in the unwarranted trade wars.

A trade deal between China and the United States is nowhere in sight. The mountain of issues could take a long time and enormous effort to resolve. It’s certainly not going to happen in three or four weeks, as Trump has suggested. More likely, it will be months, if not years.

History may rhyme, but the economic drama now unfolding in the United States defies historical reason. When the US Federal Reserve’s technocrats collide with an inexperienced and capricious presidential administration, conventional macroeconomic tools quickly become impotent.

The recent Financial Times editorial by economist Michael Pettis, in which he advocates for U.S. capital controls to achieve balance in its external accounts, is emblematic of a deeper and more troubling reality: American economic policy has entered a conceptual dead end.

Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” policy is intended to push back against globalization, but its inherent structural problems will only accelerate the trend of “de-Americanization” worldwide.

The Trump administration will continue to sway as it seeks new equilibrium amid stress-relieving turbulence. Historical patterns can be seen, but so can evolving realities. No one knows if America will find another escape route.

There is no winner in a trade war, because sabotaging trade hurts both sides. “Killing 1,000 enemies while losing 800 of one’s own” — a Chinese saying for a scenario in which the cost does not justify the gain — is applicable in this case.

Despite the growing risk of economic recession at home, President Donald Trump has done nothing to prepare voters for the pain ahead. He is betting that the Federal Reserve will relax interest rates to mitigate the effect of tariffs, but monetary easing could also trigger an inflation spike.