The crisis in Ukraine quickly led China-observers to draw comparisons to the similar provocations that exist in the Taiwan Strait regarding Taiwanese sovereignty and Beijing’s desire to take control of the island. The way Russia’s offensive is unfolding can lead to sobering takeaways for all sides party to Taiwan and China’s standoff.

The demonization of China that began during the Trump presidency has persisted. Bilateral relations are morphing from a competition over interests to a struggle over values and identity. The near future looks bleak, but there’s hope further down the road.

The Biden administration’s long-awaited strategic framework for trade with China may not be more effective than Trump’s. But it’s imperative to avoid harm and to push for new engagement consensus.

Washington might believe that Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine will make China think twice about using force, or that China will be constrained by the CPC’s 20th National Congress. But this is a grave misunderstanding.

After the Soviet Union collapsed, the U.S. gradually began pointing its finger at China. Now it’s asking China to stab Russia in the back. One cannot help but ask: After burying Russia, as it hopes, does the U.S. expect to lead its Western allies to bury China?

The Ukraine war has put China in a bind. As a friend of both Russia and Ukraine, China has no desire to pick a side. On the contrary, conventional Chinese wisdom dictates that, when two friends fight each other, the primary objective must be to end the conflict through mediation. While China’s balanced stance has aroused more than a little suspicion, it could end up hastening the end of the war – and easing tensions with the United States.

China and the United States engage in different ways with other countries. China knows what ASEAN member states really want, while the U.S. maintains the notion of “America first.” It’s only natural for ASEAN leaders to act in their national self-interest.

Expect China and the U.S. to remain in a state of strategic stalemate for a long time. The most dangerous moments in bilateral ties will be when the two countries strengths bump against one another. We must be fully prepared for that.

Some believe the U.S. has the ability to take on a two-ocean strategy — the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific — but China-Russia issues loom large. They will guide the approach to China by the West.

The U.S. effort to impede China’s rise is in conflict with its regional strategy to gain benefits. To whip up its allies, it makes groundless accusations against China, but these are unlikely to persuade other countries to become America’s anti-China vanguard.