The recent tariff episode shook global economic confidence in a way that’s only been seen in the aftermath of major catastrophes, despite relief coming in the short-term. Has the damage been done to America’s trade hegemony?

The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

A great many negative consequences would follow a successful effort by the United States to pull the MFN rug out from under the world’s second-largest economy. If this key pillar of global trade is taken away, the collapse of the WTO itself could follow.

Trump’s second term could pave the way for extended rule by undermining institutions and consolidating power, following the pattern of historical self-coups. This would not only threaten U.S. democracy but also disrupt global stability, forcing nations like China to rethink their long-term strategies.

Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.

Trump’s foreign policy moves have been polarizing to say the least - but with competing voices within his own cabinet involved, the strongman approach may not be the ultimate outcome of the early administration’s moves.

Trump’s return creates uncertainty for Beijing, with potential economic risks from renewed tariffs and trade restrictions. While there are some prospects for relations to get better, the unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies and Washington’s internal challenges could also lead to further volatility between the U.S. and China.

Simon Lacey, Head of Digital Trade and Geopolitics at the World Economic Forum, in a recent interview with Marc Smrikarov of China-US Focus, discusses areas where U.S. and Chinese interests align, such as global financial stability and freedom of navigation. Additionally, he emphasizes the need for patience and understanding on both sides, and to recognize the importance of cooperation in a shifting multipolar world. He also highlights the fragmentation of AI development between the U.S. and China, warning that the lack of cross-collaboration could hinder innovation, and urges a more rational approach to labeling AI and semiconductors as dual-use technologies in national security contexts.

Given the deadly and complex nature of the U.S. fentanyl crisis, overcoming challenges and making the best of cooperation have become daunting tasks. The United States needs to act to stem domestic demand instead of accusing China of complicity.

Washington and Beijing display stark contrasts in their approaches to the world and to each other. The dividing lines highlight the extremes — perpetrators and victims, oppressors and the oppressed, aggressors and defenders.