The U.S. faces a growing strategic risk from a shrinking pool of China experts, weakening its ability to manage intensifying competition with China. Efforts to limit engagement for security reasons may deepen this problem by reducing understanding, underscoring the need for targeted, security-conscious investment in expertise.

When Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet in Beijing on May 14-15, both are looking to stabilize the volatile and fraught U.S.-China relationship. Significant and diverse differences between the two sides will endure long beyond the summit meeting, but overall stabilization and progress on ten specific policy areas is achievable.

Unfiltered, people-to-people interactions reveal the human complexity behind international relations and challenge simplistic “us vs. them” narratives. These everyday cross-cultural exchanges, including those through digital media like streamers’ travels, can reduce hostility and reshape how younger generations perceive countries like China and the United States.

Trump’s foreign policy setbacks, particularly with Iran, have complicated his diplomatic agenda and delayed a key summit with China, though both sides remain motivated by domestic and strategic incentives to pursue limited, pragmatic agreements. However, any cooperation will likely focus on narrow, short-term gains, as deep structural rivalry and mutual distrust continue to constrain meaningful long-term rapprochement.

What matters most for China is not whether the United States is in decline but how to understand a country that seeks to shape history while being no longer willing to bear the costs under the old rules. The United States today stands at a historic crossroads. To understand, one must begin with this fundamental reality.

In the waning days of 2025, the United States unveiled its National Security Strategy (NSS), a document that reads less like a blueprint for global dominance and more like the confessions of a fading hegemon. Penned in the shadow of economic strains, industrial atrophy, and military overstretch, the NSS trumpets “America First” while subtly shifting the burdens of empire onto allies.

The new White House National Security Strategy provides a critical window for understanding America’s view of the roles of major powers and the international order. But Donald Trump’s brash and unpredictable personal characteristics are a wild card that will keep the world in suspense.

The first Trump–Xi summit since 2025 brought high hopes and headline deals on trade, fentanyl, and rare earths, but diverging goals and ambiguous promises hint at the fragility of this latest U.S.–China rapprochement. The United States secured pledges on curbing fentanyl flows, increased agricultural purchases, and the removal of export controls on rare earths, while emphasizing symbolic gains in respect and stability.

Trump and Xi’s latest meeting was a remarkable display of amiability between the U.S. and China, yet the conflicts at hand saw no progress toward resolution.

China and the U.S. must avoid both the Thucydides trap and the Cold War trap. This is not only in their strategic interest but also that of other countries in the region and around the world. Both sides must make major efforts jointly and in a sustained manner.