The tech rivalry between China and the United States is fast becoming a key variable in the trajectory of relations. It not only reflects divergent innovation paths but fundamentally reshapes the global technological order.

No single country can respond to the fentanyl challenge alone. What’s needed is joint effort and sustained cooperation – not economic coercion.

China has taken a tough stance against US President Donald Trump, matching the last two rounds of US tariffs with tariffs of its own. The US tariff on goods from China is now 145%, while China’s is 125%. Why does China take such a position, and are there any off-ramps that would allow it to mitigate the costs of a prolonged trade war?

The recent tariff episode shook global economic confidence in a way that’s only been seen in the aftermath of major catastrophes, despite relief coming in the short-term. Has the damage been done to America’s trade hegemony?

The second Trump administration’s China policies have thus far been very opaque and difficult to discern. However, in recent weeks a variety of indicators are beginning to make them clearer—and one dominant theme emerges: China will be viewed as America’s principal adversary.

A great many negative consequences would follow a successful effort by the United States to pull the MFN rug out from under the world’s second-largest economy. If this key pillar of global trade is taken away, the collapse of the WTO itself could follow.

Trump’s second term could pave the way for extended rule by undermining institutions and consolidating power, following the pattern of historical self-coups. This would not only threaten U.S. democracy but also disrupt global stability, forcing nations like China to rethink their long-term strategies.

Trump’s second-term foreign policy asserts U.S. hegemony in the Western Hemisphere while exploring a great power system based on spheres of influence. Its success hinges on defining these spheres—especially between the U.S. and China—without destabilizing East Asia.

Trump’s foreign policy moves have been polarizing to say the least - but with competing voices within his own cabinet involved, the strongman approach may not be the ultimate outcome of the early administration’s moves.

Trump’s return creates uncertainty for Beijing, with potential economic risks from renewed tariffs and trade restrictions. While there are some prospects for relations to get better, the unpredictable nature of Trump’s policies and Washington’s internal challenges could also lead to further volatility between the U.S. and China.