The first month of Trump’s presidency has been a useful primer for Chinese officials, albeit an unpleasant one. China was certainly watching the Trump-Abe meeting for cues on how the new president conducts himself with foreign leaders.

Most of Trump’s rhetoric and new thinking about foreign relations have not materialized, and he basically has returned to the old track of conventional US diplomatic thinking. “Obsolete” NATO is once again the “unbreakable alliance”, and his attitude toward China is also now in line with previous US policy.

The Trump administration has been surprisingly brusque with demands that NATO allies meet their financial defense targets quickly. However, the US push for more military spending by European allies is less about European security than about freeing up more of Washington’s own resources to deal with issues in Asia.

The new president is sounding themes that he has stuck with since his surprise election, promising to crush ISIS and promoting NATO, but demanding that allies pay their share of defense costs. America, he insists, seeks friends and peace in the world.

Since his days on the campaign trail, Trump has been a huge critic of China. However, he will need to come to terms with the fact that criticizing and alienating China, especially over the threat that North Korea poses, is not wise. North Korea will serve as a test of not just Trump’s ability to make a deal but also his ability to employ diplomacy with a rival to address a common and growing threat.

Today marks the 45th anniversary of the Shanghai Communique, which brought unprecedented peace and development to Asia.

While there are some variables in Trump diplomacy, variables do not necessarily equal uncertainties. Many of the forces affecting US diplomacy and global interactions are constant and predictable.

Donald Trump’s contentious telephone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull caused worried reactions in the United States. Washington’s behavior will consist more of abrasive demands rather than requests and quiet diplomacy. Trump’s America First policy means giving highest priority to U.S. interests, not maintaining cordial alliance relations. That is a major change that Washington’s partners in East Asia and Europe will have to face.

Political, pragmatic, and bureaucratic factors have been pushing Trump to pursue more traditional foreign and security policies. His response to the North Korean missile launch, meeting with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and recognition of the One China principle resembled those of previous presidents. However, Trump still has major differences with Japan and China, while his continuing Obama’s North Korean policy of castigating the regime, working with other countries like China to apply additional sanctions, deploying regional missile defenses, and refusing to engage with Pyongyang until it recommits to ending its nuclear program will likely still not yield appreciable results besides giving North Korea time to perfect its nuclear and missile capabilities.

The new president’s simplistic and arbitrary approach other countries is a double-edged sword that will bring a series of negative impacts on US foreign policies. While his China policy seems to be a work in progress, his sense of ‘two Chinas’ will pose a serious challenge to the diplomatic framework that has provided stability since the Nixon administration. Meanwhile, China should adhere to its own agenda and avoid being distracted by outside provocations.