May 22, 2026

Trump’s high-stakes visit to China against a backdrop of conflict with Iran and economic tit-for-tat exchanges have made those issues the central focus for observers, but the shift in the U.S. President’s tone on Taiwan’s defense may be just as consequential as any deal that emerges.

Apr 21, 2026

Trump’s tariffs failed to reshore manufacturing or reduce trade deficits, instead weakening U.S. alliances and strengthening China’s global position. They accelerated a shift in power toward control of supply chains and critical materials—an area where China holds a decisive advantage.

Mar 26, 2026

U.S. strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei redirected American military resources and attention from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. This shift allows China to strengthen its strategic position in Asia while the United States becomes absorbed in a secondary conflict.

Feb 14, 2026

Hostage Interdependence and Managed CohabitationThe land of Machiavelli, Richelieu, and Metternich has rediscovered a rule of power politics it once grasped ins

Jan 13, 2026

The Trump administration has merged state authority with private interests, treating political power as a monetizable platform rather than a system of public governance. From Beijing’s perspective, this validates China’s pragmatic approach to legitimacy and positions the U.S. as a conglomerate of private interests rather than a traditional state.

Dec 19, 2025

The Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy reframes the U.S.-Europe relationship from a partnership based on law and institutions into one judged through identity, heritage, and demographic loyalty. This “Trump Corollary” marks a decisive break from the post-1949 transatlantic order and deepens the risk of a lasting rift between Europe and the United States.

Dec 08, 2025

In the near future, the supposed “multipolar” world has been deferred, giving way instead to “orbital bipolarity”—a system in which global politics and industry are pulled into competing gravitational fields centered on the United States and China. Multilateralism has become inert, and every other power now orbits these two anchors while maintaining the fiction of choice and autonomy.

Oct 22, 2025

Europe has failed to establish a coherent strategy toward China, shifting inconsistently between partnership, competition, and rivalry without defining clear objectives. Ursula von der Leyen’s 2025 State of the Union address, which omitted any substantive mention of China, marked the collapse of the EU’s China policy and exposed its strategic paralysis amid U.S. pressure and Chinese influence.

Oct 17, 2025

As Trump’s administration barrels forward, what seemed like a potential era of isolation has become a series of interventions that seemingly have come with one single calculation resting on America’s peerless power.

Sep 05, 2025

Today’s international order is shaped by “orbital bipolarity,” dominated by the United States and China, with secondary powers navigating their influence; Europe is limited in its role, China acts cautiously, Russia capitalizes on Western hesitation, and Ukraine remains trapped in the conflict.