Washington is sending an unsubtle message to Beijing that U.S. military support for Taiwan is no longer ambiguous or hesitant.

Will the United States fight for the island or forsake it? It’s a central question, as a series of statements by Washington hawks and moves in Congress edge toward confrontation. A protracted war is one possible outcome. Loss of U.S. credibility in the Asia-Pacific is another.

A series of moves by the United States and the words of its high-ranking officials all point in the same direction: The U.S. is doing its utmost to contain China across the board for the 21st century.

With only four countries in the bloc — the United States, Japan, Australia and India — and with dissension in the ranks, it’s unlikely that a NATO-style alliance will ever emerge in the Eastern Hemisphere. It cannot work without consensus.

Over a century ago, World War I showed the world how crowded alliances and geopolitical tension could ignite into all-out war. Now in the 21st Century, posturing on both sides of the Pacific mirror the mistakes made by yesterday’s empires.

World conditions are not conducive to another cold war, and there’s little reason to expect one. Maybe all the talk is just U.S. rhetoric to frighten others into joining an anti-China bloc.

With China, Russia and the U.S. all developing major space programs, trilateral accords and communication will be key to avoiding misunderstandings – or war – between nations.

The important waterway could be the first tile to fall in a Sino-U.S. conflict. In openly ramping up an interventionist policy and increasing its pressure on China, the United States is increasing the risk of a military confrontation.

China must study the possibilities to prevent the rebirth of the sort of chilly long-term isolation experienced by the United States and Soviet Union in the past. Above all, it should reject unhelpful ideological comparisons.

Only mechanisms that support dialogue in the face of potential confrontation will do the job. If a military conflict occurs, no matter how limited, the door to a protracted cold war will be thrown open.