China and the U.S. must avoid both the Thucydides trap and the Cold War trap. This is not only in their strategic interest but also that of other countries in the region and around the world. Both sides must make major efforts jointly and in a sustained manner.

Advanced technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and quantum computing, have emerged at the heart of most nations’ national strategic planning. China also developed national plans for technological breakthroughs. However, unlike most other countries, China’s current plans are heavily influenced by unprecedented US export curbs on acquiring technology. These steep and targeted export curbs are intended to prevent China from acquiring high technologies to maintain the US monopoly. They started during the first term of US President Donald Trump (2017-2021), continued during the Biden administration, and intensified since Trump’s second term.

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza reflects accelerating recalibration in the Middle East, as U.S. military maneuvers are giving way to economic development promoted by the Arab states, China and the Global South.

Recent developments warrant a senior China-U.S. dialogue regarding Afghanistan, beginning with the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and U.S. presidents in Seoul.

The Trump administration’s emphasis has shifted toward homeland security and the security of the Western Hemisphere. At the same time its deeply contradictory and confused mindset on Taiwan is dangerous and could lead the military astray.

The Philippines is strengthening defense ties with the United States at a time of escalating US-China rivalry. Manila aims to mitigate power asymmetry, while China’s response to its maritime neighbor reflects a deep distrust of alliances and wary of invaders which came by sea.

America’s Afghan pullout was a strategic debacle. Going back to Bagram Air Base would only sink the U.S. into another costly, divisive and failure-prone intervention in a geo-economic war at the center of Asia.

By displaying China’s growing military power, the September 3 parade aimed to intimidate adversaries, impress friends, and justify government policies. Yet, Russia’s failures in Ukraine remind us that organizing a parade and winning a war are different endeavors.

Donald Trump is threatening to retake Bagram Air Base to gain access to Afghanistan’s rich mineral deposits and to check China and other countries. It’s a costly fantasy. Trump himself signed the 2020 Doha Accord, and his about-face reveals a foreign policy driven by political revenge.

China and the United States should work to improve their crisis management mechanisms and to promote mutual trust and cooperation. In this way they can contribute to each other’s success, achieve common prosperity and bring benefits to themselves and the world.