The U.S.-Israel war with Iran is exposing widening reluctance among American allies to support the conflict, signaling potential erosion in U.S. global influence. At the same time, moves to bypass the U.S. dollar in oil trade, amid growing Chinese involvement, could challenge the petrodollar and reshape the global energy order.

U.S. strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei redirected American military resources and attention from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. This shift allows China to strengthen its strategic position in Asia while the United States becomes absorbed in a secondary conflict.

Donald Trump is deconstructing U.S. foreign policy through his erratic decision-making and appetite for political theater. The correction likely depends less on any single president but on whether America can build more stable strategic assessment mechanisms, more open decision-making processes and more resilient policy-correction capacity.

Two weeks into the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran - launched on 28 February 2026 with the explicit aim of decapitating leadership, and ostensible objectives of degrading nuclear and missile capabilities, so as to trigger regime collapse - the conflict has instead evolved into a grinding quagmire. What Washington anticipated as a swift application of air superiority leading to internal disintegration has produced the opposite: a politically consolidated Iranian state, depleted U.S. and allied air-defence stocks, Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, and a cascading energy shock rippling across global markets.

The messy crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has clarified how power works in the 21st century. It reminds us that the greatest long-term threat to the United States is not China’s military buildup or Russian aggression, but the gradual fragmentation of the alliance system that has underwritten its global leadership since World War II.

Each has three core national objectives that are internally contradictory. Any two can be pursued simultaneously, but never all three. Until these triangles are broken, there will be no lasting peace in the Middle East—only the same fire burning in different forms.

The chaotic conditions created by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran are now in an escalatory phase. The reverberations will be severe worldwide.

Initial American success against Iran has settled into protracted unpredictability. Things are not going exactly as planned for the United States, and significant unforeseen costs of war may emerge. Trump’s bluster cannot cover or eliminate the strategic pitfalls inherent in U.S. military operations.

The security foundation on which the GCC’s economic model was built has been seriously undermined. Unless these nations can forge a new, credible framework, it will be difficult to sustain the foreign investment and confidence that have fueled their growth.

The war against Iran is not going well for Israel, which is being bombarded daily, nor is it going well for the US, which has seen its military bases and strategic facilities in the region attacked and degraded by Iranian drones and missiles. Of course, Iran suffers most of all, but it has shown a remarkable capacity to fight a war of attrition, despite the dreadful daily onslaught from the skies. Its reconstituted leadership has shown not a hint of the “unconditional surrender” that Trump is demanding.