Extended deterrence by the U.S. and ROK, as well as the framing of security as a regional issue requiring alliances, illustrates the spread of NATO-style security thinking. From China’s perspective, this will result in a further imbalance in the region’s security order and requires resolute opposition.

We live in a world where geopolitical stability relies largely on deterrence. But how can we prove that deterrence works?

The Taiwan stand-off between the island, China, and the U.S. has been a simmering point of tension for decades, but with anti-China rhetoric ratcheting up in the West, and bolder American overtures towards Taiwan’s elected leaders, the potential for open conflict seems more and more likely.

Stronger U.S.-ROK ties have aggravated tensions with the DPRK, and the situation has deteriorated further since the ROK’s new president assumed office. In the North’s eyes, America’s maximum pressure approach excludes any possibility for meaningful dialogue.

Artificial intelligence may transform human society for the better by releasing people from repetitive work and improving the speed of innovation. But no one is immune from its potential negative social impacts and security threats. Some worry about becoming its victims.

China has kick-started a phase of public-facing diplomacy overtures, encompassing Europe, the Middle East, and its own situation with Taiwan. The wave of meetings and visits shows a remarkable change in China’s reception from the international community, as well as where it might still improve its relations.

The United States is at a three-way crossroads. It must decide whether to defend Taiwan, abandon Taiwan or destroy Taiwan. Will the U.S. risk being dragged into a war as it continues to use Taiwan to contain China’s progress? The clock is ticking.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

Chinese chipmakers have remained surprisingly resilient despite U.S. semiconductor export controls. By redirecting focus towards legacy chip production, stockpiling restricted foreign chips, government support, and open-source RISC-V chip design architecture, China’s semiconductor industry may survive Washington’s export control campaign.

Washington’s repeated provocations — both military and political — have made any recovery of stable relations with China difficult. If the United States fails to comprehend the serious nature of the Taiwan question, war will likely result.