The Munich Security Conference reveals a shift in transatlantic ties as AI security becomes central to global debate. Europe is increasingly linking AI policy to technological autonomy, seeking to balance cooperation with the United States while strengthening its own strategic capabilities.

Germany’s renewed engagement with China reflects deep shifts in the international system. As alliance cohesion weakens and multipolar trends advances, Berlin is exploring interest-based cooperation beyond traditional Western frameworks, signaling a broader transition from ideology-driven alliances toward pragmatic international partnerships.

Hostage Interdependence and Managed CohabitationThe land of Machiavelli, Richelieu, and Metternich has rediscovered a rule of power politics it once grasped ins

French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to China reinforced bilateral ties through trade, investment, and scientific cooperation, yet yielded few breakthroughs on contentious issues like Ukraine or advanced technology transfer, reflecting Beijing’s guarded approach. While Macron projects a Neo-Gaullist vision of strategic autonomy and a “Third Way” between the U.S. and China, structural constraints in France and the enduring weight of trans-Atlantic ties limit the substantive impact of his approach.

China’s Global Governance Initiative contains some clear structural and cognitive differences compared with the West. Global governance has entered a post-Western era and requires the building of a new governance regime that features consultation and sharing.

Reframing Europe as an example of civilizational erosion reinforces crisis narratives among conservatives in the United States while mirroring problems that exist within Europe itself. In effect, Washington is using Europe’s crisis to tell a story about America.

By sacrificing Chinese interests to signal alignment with the United States, the European Union overestimates its own leverage and underestimates China’s resilience and strategic resolve, thereby complicating pragmatic China-EU cooperation and impeding coordination on global challenges.

Europe has failed to establish a coherent strategy toward China, shifting inconsistently between partnership, competition, and rivalry without defining clear objectives. Ursula von der Leyen’s 2025 State of the Union address, which omitted any substantive mention of China, marked the collapse of the EU’s China policy and exposed its strategic paralysis amid U.S. pressure and Chinese influence.

The U.S. president has upended the traditional liberal international order, recalibrated relations with allies and is poised to exert a profound influence on the global strategic landscape through transactional alliances.

Europe retains global influence in areas such as multilateral governance, the green transition and technological innovation. If it can craft a new synthesis between strategic autonomy and transatlantic cooperation, it may yet play an independent role in the emerging great-power landscape.