The most likely scenario for a degree of success is that Iran stops short of building a weapon. This would pressure the U.S. while keeping strategic risks under control. But prospects for trouble are looming this year. All parties will have to work for the best while preparing for the worst.

The U.S.-Iran rivalry has sunk to new depths after the death in custody of a young woman who was arrested by the Iranian morality police for improperly wearing a head covering. Iran’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made matters even worse.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict raises uncertainties in negotiations for a renewed Iran nuclear deal. Thorny problems remain. But while there are negatives, there are also opportunities.

Both the United States and Iran want the other to make the first move. But even if the Biden administration were to lift sanctions tomorrow, international investors will not return to the Iranian market quickly. They fear a new Republican administration in the U.S. will scuttle the program again.

The United States wants Iran make the first concession — such as ending its uranium enrichment activities. That would be significant for Iran. But because of mistrust, Iran is likely to wait for the U.S. to make the first move.

China has its own reasons for strategic cooperation with Iran, and undermining the United States is not one of them. It is true, however, that Iran wants the U.S. to lift all sanctions, and the U.S. has signaled that it may be ready to concede.

The news of an agreement struck between two of America’s adversaries made waves and raised the alarm for a potential showdown, but the potential for military coordination isn’t the main focus of the agreement.

American airstrikes took place in Syria, but there’s no question they were intended to send a message to Iran and Russia. It’s clear the U.S. intends to reassert its influence in the Middle East.

Mixing questions about nuclear reactors and missiles with matters involving Iran’s political system is a recipe for failure. Separating the issues will allow the U.S. to return to the Iran deal more easily, while addressing other concerns in a different forum.