China’s new rare-earth export controls have turned its dominance in the sector into a powerful strategic tool, extending restrictions to technology, equipment, and expertise that tighten global dependence. The move has intensified tensions with the United States and its allies, highlighting how control over critical minerals now defines the balance of economic and geopolitical power.

After months of escalating tariffs and retaliatory measures, China and the United States have reached a fragile truce that has begun to stabilize their trade and technology relationship. While tensions over chips, rare earths, and agricultural exports persist, both sides now recognize their mutual vulnerability, creating a cautious but potentially durable détente rooted in economic deterrence rather than dominance.

Conventional thinking would assume the Trump administration’s haphazard approach to China will become an articulated stance at some point, but the U.S. president is anything but conventional.

Since the U.S.-China trade war began in April, Chinese companies have faced high tariffs and economic uncertainty, prompting them to reshore production to the U.S., shift manufacturing to developing countries, and diversify into other markets. Despite higher costs and regulatory challenges, they are balancing supply chain stability with expansion in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe to maintain their low-cost business models.

While no one has waved an official checkered flag in the Sino-American race for AI supremacy, the markets are betting that the United States will prevail. The chipmaker Nvidia recently became the world’s first $4 trillion company (and its CEO, Jensen Huang, has acquired global rock-star status). Microsoft, the biggest investor in OpenAI’s for-profit entity, is not far behind, with a valuation of $3.7 trillion.

The intent of the United States was to coerce China into making concessions. But this didn’t work. China was only inspired to reach out to other trading partners and become more independent through home-grown technological development.

A new global stage is clearly being set as Western powers begin to react to China’s rivalling interests, and the U.K. may be positioning itself as a middle ground for the 21st Century.

The genius of China’s approach is that it never triggers a full-scale crisis. It ensures that American companies and politicians exist in a state of perpetual anxiety. Inventories shrink to manage costs and procurement becomes a game of roulette. Meanwhile, Beijing can modulate the pressure.

U.S. restrictions aimed at obstructing China’s technological development have, in practice, accelerated China’s pursuit of technological self-reliance.

Given the fact that most disruptions in the bilateral relationship originate in Washington, it is essential that the Trump administration apply the consensus reached during the call to its future actions.