It is essential that China and the United States avoid a nuclear arms race. The recent stabilization of relations is a prerequisite for bilateral nuclear dialogue. Such a dialogue, in turn, will help maintain not only strategic stability but also healthy overall ties.

In 2024 and beyond, the two nations must strive to understand the other’s mindset. Concerted efforts will be needed to mitigate risks and enhance stability. Both should refrain from taking unilateral actions against the other worldwide based on perceptions of maritime security.

Resuming genuine cooperation is the first step for any party that wants to pursue a stable and healthy relationship in the long-run. China and the United States must continue to carry out the spirit enshrined in the so-called San Francisco Vision.

China and Russia’s maligned relationship looks on the surface to be a new axis of power against the U.S. - but by playing it safe, China seeks to reap the benefits of Russia’s favor without offending the West.

The U.S. administration under President Joe Biden crafted its approach in two phases. First, it considered China’s capabilities, and then it combined that capability with a presumed intent, believing that China’s intent is to alter the existing international system. That conclusion is built on a weak foundation.

Five critical challenges present themselves in the post-San Francisco summit era: Taiwan, geopolitics, dialogue mechanisms, American elections and the U.S. view of strategic competition. Be prepared for a potentially bumpy ride in 2024.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden last fall, some interpreted it as a return to engagement. In fact, it heralded only a minor détente, not a major change in policy.

While some good things have emerged, the foundation is not yet strong enough. Relations may be warming but no one is scorched by the heat. The overall temperature remains cool. Washington won’t be changing its policy of competition, and political rhetoric during the coming U.S. presidential election year will only add complexity.

The Biden-Xi meeting in San Francisco was undoubtedly going to lead to new developments in cross-Pacific relations, but one month after the meeting the overall climate between the two rivals has yet to change.

Renewed attempts to cooperate seem to be bearing fruit recently, but these successes must now pass through the fire of a divided America. The hard-won cooperation potential may well be interrupted by the election cycle in 2024, magnified by an increase in negative rhetoric regarding China.