A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

Geopolitical tensions unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to influence Sino-American relations and the reshaping of state relationships in Southeast Asia.

Will the Asia-Pacific chart a course forward? Or will it return to the status quo of the Cold War? Mentality matters, and the old thinking inevitably leads to misjudgments. The U.S. sees China through the same prism it once saw the Soviet Union but neglects the fundamental differences of two hugely different ages.

The region has maintained overall security and stability for more than 40 years, largely because of the strategic rationality and sobriety of governments in the neighborhood. Major powers that want to interfere should take note.

China has not taken sides over the Russia-Ukraine conflict for good reason. It is Russia’s strategic partner and Ukraine’s largest trading partner. At the same time, China and the West are not enemies. We must coexist despite our differences.

As the United States attempts to merge Europe and Asia into a systemic whole for the purpose of dealing with China and Russia, much more concerted activity can be expected.

The DPRK places Northeast Asia at risk, and their current military trajectory could pose problems for the PRC as well as the U.S. and its allies. So despite their fundamental differences, it’s in the best interests of both Washington and Beijing to find opportunities to cooperate to promote regional stability.

To answer, it is essential to place Russia’s motives in historical context. Since the conflict is essentially between Russia and NATO, the West must be willing to negotiate. Otherwise the struggle will be protracted, with no end in sight.

The United States and its allies are less interested in solving the problem than they are in containing China. But even if conflict is avoided, the intensification of a new cold war in Northeast Asia and the rising risk of nuclear proliferation do not bode well for the future.

This is a highlight moment for ASEAN, with the ASEAN Summit, the G20 Summit and the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting coming soon. By hosting these events, ASEAN will be able to demonstrate to the world its strong will and capability to unite the region and provide new impetus for the post pandemic recovery.