The trickiest problem for South Korea’s diplomacy is balancing the country’s relationships with the United States, China and Japan. Success hinges on consistent pragmatism in both domestic and international affairs.

The ROK’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, is attempting to improve relations with Pyongyang. But if Seoul is serious, it will need to take steps that go beyond rhetoric. Conciliatory efforts may not guarantee Pyongyang’s engagement, but they could lower the temperature and create space for negotiation.

Today’s international order is shaped by “orbital bipolarity,” dominated by the United States and China, with secondary powers navigating their influence; Europe is limited in its role, China acts cautiously, Russia capitalizes on Western hesitation, and Ukraine remains trapped in the conflict.

Actual improvement of the bilateral relationship between the United States an Russia should be helpful in ending the war in Ukraine. Virtually any effort that facilitates sustainable peace is worthy of China’s support. So the meeting in Alaska does not need to be interpreted as unproductive.

The stated intentions of France, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia may add to Israel’s growing international isolation and could prompt a reassessment — though not a fundamental shift — in support for Israel by the United States.

China declined an opportunity to join Iran in its June 2025 confrontation with the United States and Israel. Though Beijing enjoys good relations with the Iranian regime, competing alignments and other considerations convinced PRC policymakers to adopt a low profile during the twelve-day war.

The United States has launched a review of the AUKUS pact—a trilateral security arrangement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, signed in 2021. Established behind closed doors and announced with little warning, the agreement abruptly terminated a multi-billion-dollar submarine deal between Australia and France, provoking fury in Paris. France branded the move a “stab in the back,” accusing its allies of deceit.

Was the so-called 12-day war a triple victory or a triple defeat? Will Americans tolerate a policy of “Israel first” over “America first”? The answers to these and other key questions will determine whether, and how deeply, the United States could be drawn into the fray again.

The May conflict between India and Pakistan brought Chinese weaponry, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, into the global spotlight, as Pakistan used Chinese arms to shoot down Indian aircraft in a rare, real-world test of their battlefield effectiveness. This unexpected validation has boosted Chinese arms sales, strengthened China's defense ties with countries like Pakistan and Indonesia, and expanded Beijing’s geopolitical influence in South Asia at the expense of declining Western engagement.

The bunker-busting strike by United States will only harden the resolve of many in Iran to push for nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the two countries may fall into a pattern of “attack-retaliate-attack,” which could develop into one of the biggest failures in human history.