Ukraine crisis lingers as the transatlantic alliance faces an uncertain future. Meanwhile, the international order is undergoing a profound restructuring as the sand shifts under traditional commitments by the United States and as Europe seeks greater autonomy.

Any lasting solution to the conflict will require consultation with all parties concerned and will be much more complex and difficult than simply putting forth hypothetical scenarios.

The war is unlikely to end according to the timeline of the incoming U.S. president. Imposing his Ukraine plan on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could give Russia an opportunity to rearm, thereby raising hurdles for the United States and its NATO allies.

The most prominent characteristic of the incoming U.S. president is uncertainty. China, especially, must drop all illusions and prepare to compete so that it can sit tight in the fishing boat and steer it to safety. The wind and waves are likely to rise under a more experienced — and possibly less restrained — American chief executive.

When he enters the White House, Donald Trump is going to need a resolution of the Ukraine conflict. But Russia’s decision-makers are unlikely to yield to him. Even if Trump got his way, the underlying issues between Russia and the West would persist.

As the world looks back into a turbulent 2024, the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors underscores the urgent need for renewed global efforts to mitigate nuclear risks. In the face of rising geopolitical tensions and technological advancements, we must revive strategic dialogues and prioritize diplomatic solutions, following President Kennedy’s example, to ensure global security and address the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons and AI-enhanced warfare. And this call demands leadership.

Middle Eastern nations are capitalizing on Donald Trump’s penchant for unprincipled, no-limits deal-making, even though he has yet to assume office. These countries are scrambling to position themselves for the high-stakes negotiations that lie ahead.

From Shinzo Abe’s concept of escaping the postwar regime to Shigeru Ishiba’s idea of postwar political settlement, the trajectory of Japan’s political evolution is becoming increasingly apparent. For both China and the United States, responding to a Japan that embraces strategic autonomy poses a significant strategic challenge.

Increased cooperation among Quad countries and partners in the Indo-Pacific region poses a challenge for Chinese diplomacy. The new U.S. president will not only inherit the security framework built under Joe Biden, but is likely to harden it even further. Thus, China has reason to worry that tensions will rise and that new hot spots will be created.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.