ASEAN and countries that make claims against China similar to the Philippines must pay more attention to the stability of the South China Sea, work closely with China, and avoid being fraudulently manipulated by third parties with their own political agendas.

Tsai Ing-wen should give up unrealistic expectations on the US-Japan “values alliance”, and reconsider Taiwan’s role in the South China Sea issue. It’s not too late for her to look at the history of the Chinese nation and link up that history with Taiwan’s future and corresponding rights to Taiping Island.

As China’s commercial and security interests expand, the Chinese Navy, like its US counterpart, may also wish to conduct more passages through international sea lanes, even if they are in the territorial sea of other countries. Anti-piracy cooperation off the coast of Somalia is an example that could prove to show a path to compromise without harming either country’s security goals.

After the tribunal’s categorical ruling on the South China Sea, China’s new strategy could be to lower the temperature by reframing the issue away from rocks, sand and physical territory. It could then seek to reframe the issue around the potential multilateral benefits of China’s Maritime Silk Road concept.

Though The Hague ruling pertains to the Philippines-China dispute, it will bolster similar claims by other states against China’s nine-dash line; it will increase pressure on China to seek a negotiated resolution to the overlapping claims; and it will circumscribe China’s SCS claims. In response, China must assure the ASEAN states of its benign intentions, dispelling impressions of hegemonic intentions.

The Philippines has turned down a Chinese proposal to start bilateral talks, its foreign minister said on Tuesday, because of Beijing's pre-condition of not discussing a court ruling that nullified most of its South China Sea claims.

China said Monday that it had begun what would become regular military air patrols over disputed islands and shoals of the South China Sea, highlighting its claim to the vast area a week after an international tribunal said Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty over the waters had no legal basis.

China said Monday that it is closing off a part of the South China Sea for military exercises this week, days after an international tribunal ruled against Beijing's claim to ownership of virtually the entire strategic waterway.

The Hague Tribunal this week issued a decision that will most likely become a tool in the hands of the defenders of the status quo. How events will develop will depend on Duterte’s disposition, China’s diplomatic sagacity, and America’s response. If the China and the Philippines are unable to meet somewhere in the middle, it is the “law” that China will reject.

—— Opening Remarks at International Law Colloquium on Maritime Disputes Settlement (15 July 2016) Introduction I’m greatly honored to have the opportunity