As China’s commercial and security interests expand, the Chinese Navy, like its US counterpart, may also wish to conduct more passages through international sea lanes, even if they are in the territorial sea of other countries. Anti-piracy cooperation off the coast of Somalia is an example that could prove to show a path to compromise without harming either country’s security goals.

After the tribunal’s categorical ruling on the South China Sea, China’s new strategy could be to lower the temperature by reframing the issue away from rocks, sand and physical territory. It could then seek to reframe the issue around the potential multilateral benefits of China’s Maritime Silk Road concept.

Though The Hague ruling pertains to the Philippines-China dispute, it will bolster similar claims by other states against China’s nine-dash line; it will increase pressure on China to seek a negotiated resolution to the overlapping claims; and it will circumscribe China’s SCS claims. In response, China must assure the ASEAN states of its benign intentions, dispelling impressions of hegemonic intentions.

The Philippines has turned down a Chinese proposal to start bilateral talks, its foreign minister said on Tuesday, because of Beijing's pre-condition of not discussing a court ruling that nullified most of its South China Sea claims.

China said Monday that it had begun what would become regular military air patrols over disputed islands and shoals of the South China Sea, highlighting its claim to the vast area a week after an international tribunal said Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty over the waters had no legal basis.

China said Monday that it is closing off a part of the South China Sea for military exercises this week, days after an international tribunal ruled against Beijing's claim to ownership of virtually the entire strategic waterway.

The Hague Tribunal this week issued a decision that will most likely become a tool in the hands of the defenders of the status quo. How events will develop will depend on Duterte’s disposition, China’s diplomatic sagacity, and America’s response. If the China and the Philippines are unable to meet somewhere in the middle, it is the “law” that China will reject.

—— Opening Remarks at International Law Colloquium on Maritime Disputes Settlement (15 July 2016) Introduction I’m greatly honored to have the opportunity

The ruling at The Hague may well lead us nowhere. Indeed, it is possible that the outcome may lead us to a crisis of enormous consequence. Can we turn this crisis in to an opportunity?

China’s top envoy in Washington elaborates on why China rejects the arbitration on South China Sea, how China plans to deal with the disputes after the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and challenges the U.S. to “make the right choice” in relations with China.