Trump has proven tougher on the South China Sea than his predecessor. So long as China plays its cards right, though, it doesn’t really matter what he does.

Although the signing of the framework of the Code of Conduct is only a small step forward, it’s actually of great significance for China-ASEAN relations.

ASEAN meetings almost always generate expectations of raising the South China Sea (SCS) disputes to the point where the success of the meeting boils down to how tough the adopted language is in the final official statements. Considering the breadth and depth of issues covered by ASEAN in its annual meetings, such reduction is unfortunate and unfair.

A U.S. Navy destroyer carried out a "freedom of navigation operation" on Thursday, coming within 12 nautical miles of an artificial island built up by China in the South China Sea.

The United States has revamped its maritime response to Chinese policy in the South China Sea, conducting its first Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) since President Trump took office. While China cannot allow this action to go unchecked, it should consider its larger global and regional power objectives before determining its response.

China claims sovereignty over almost the entirety of the South China Sea, while consistently rejecting The Hague ruling. Thus, the only way for a JDA to push through is if Duterte managed to amend the Philippine constitution, largely ignore his country’s arbitration award victory, and overcome deep-seated public antipathy towards resource-sharing agreements with China. This will be an uphill battle with a lot of potential hiccups along the way.

Despite the ruling of the South China Sea arbitration case, the Chinese continue to use the waters in Filipino territory however they please. The Duterte Administration downplayed the ruling in order to try and strengthen economic and strategic ties with China, and the Philippines are paying for it.

it seems that the tough approach on the South China Sea was more a campaign strategy than a policy plan. Like previous administrations, the Trump team sees armed conflict between China and the US as a losing proposition for all sides, and issues of economy, trade and the South China Sea better managed by cooperation than confrontation.

For the past 12 months, the waters of the South China Sea have been fairly tranquil. However, long-time, and hence jaded, observers of one of Asia’s most intractable disputes understand the cyclical nature of tensions; and also know that given the unchanging central drivers of the conflict and the absence of collective political will to palliate those drivers and negotiate an equitable solution, periods of calm are invariably followed by strong tempests.