If the United States can adapt flexibly and prioritize consensus with its trading partners, it may solidify its economic dominance. Otherwise, persistent high tariffs risk deepening global trade fragmentation and will challenge America’s long-term influence.

The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

Court rulings could weaken the U.S. administration’s tough stance in trade talks and give trading partners more room to maneuver. But policy uncertainty means that high-stakes trade negotiations could go either way.

America’s reindustrialization process relies heavily on China’s industrial system support. In an increasingly competitive global market, China’s full-fledged industrial system emerges as the most cost-effective and competitive option.

After reaching a consensus in their tariff negotiations in Geneva, China and the United States have significantly reduced their duties on each other. This has awakened countries around the world and inspired them to launch a new wave of regional integration.

Values laid out by China and the United States — equality, mutual respect and mutual benefit — will keep trade tensions under control through practical results and stabilize the important trade relationship.

The deal will spell the end of WTO’s system of setting tariffs by consensus, which has been in operation since the inception of the world body in 1995. It will usher in a new era in which Washington alone will set tariff rates.

History may rhyme, but the economic drama now unfolding in the United States defies historical reason. When the US Federal Reserve’s technocrats collide with an inexperienced and capricious presidential administration, conventional macroeconomic tools quickly become impotent.

There is no winner in a trade war, because sabotaging trade hurts both sides. “Killing 1,000 enemies while losing 800 of one’s own” — a Chinese saying for a scenario in which the cost does not justify the gain — is applicable in this case.

Despite the growing risk of economic recession at home, President Donald Trump has done nothing to prepare voters for the pain ahead. He is betting that the Federal Reserve will relax interest rates to mitigate the effect of tariffs, but monetary easing could also trigger an inflation spike.