He Weiwen, Senior Fellow, Center for China and Globalization, CCG
Apr 30, 2025
Tariffs and a trade war are definitely going in the wrong direction. Trump and his team should cast aside all illusions that China will capitulate and that the U.S. can survive the tariff war. The only wise choice is to dump the tariffs and come to the table for talks.
Brian Wong, Assistant Professor in Philosophy and Fellow at Centre on Contemporary China and the World, HKU and Rhodes Scholar
Apr 28, 2025
Speculation about a "Grand Bargain" between Trump and Xi persists, but deep divisions within Washington, Trump’s erratic leadership, and Beijing’s long-term strategic patience make a major breakthrough unlikely. Even if a meeting occurs, structural mistrust and political instability on both sides suggest any deal would be fragile at best.
Shang-Jin Wei, Professor, Finance and Economics at Columbia University
Apr 22, 2025
China has taken a tough stance against US President Donald Trump, matching the last two rounds of US tariffs with tariffs of its own. The US tariff on goods from China is now 145%, while China’s is 125%. Why does China take such a position, and are there any off-ramps that would allow it to mitigate the costs of a prolonged trade war?
Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, President of Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, and Research Fellow at Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation
Apr 22, 2025
For many nations, a highly profitable trade relationship with the United States is now no longer a given. With President Trump’s tariff agenda looming over the world, how is Asia planning for a future where the U.S. may not be so open for business?
Richard Javad Heydarian, Professorial Chairholder in Geopolitics, Polytechnic University of the Philippines
Apr 22, 2025
The recent tariff episode shook global economic confidence in a way that’s only been seen in the aftermath of major catastrophes, despite relief coming in the short-term. Has the damage been done to America’s trade hegemony?
Lawrence Lau, Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, CUHK
Apr 18, 2025
An estimate of the impact of the tariff war between China and the U.S. on the Chinese GDP in 2025 is presented. The dependence of the Chinese economy on its exports and, in particular, on its exports to the U.S. has been declining significantly over time. At the current tariff rates, a total cessation of bilateral trade is a real possibility. Under the assumption, the reduction in the rate of growth of Chinese GDP may be estimated to be 1.2%, other things being equal. Even though the announced target rate of Chinese growth is around 5%, the weighted average of the target rates of growth of the provincial-level units is 5.26%, indicating room for further increase. In addition, China is expected to launch additional domestic economic stimulus measures in response to the new tariffs, which should result in an additional growth of 0.5%. For 2025 as a whole, a rate of growth of around 4.5% (5.26 – 1.2 + 0.5) may be predicted.
Ghulam Ali, Deputy Director, Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies
Apr 16, 2025
His poorly conceived global tariff war will severely affect U.S. consumers, increase inflation, damage America’s reputation as a reliable partner and put the entire global trade system and practices that the U.S. once championed at risk.
Zhang Yun, Professor, School of International Relations, Nanjing University
Apr 11, 2025
The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.
Dan Steinbock, Founder, Difference Group
Apr 05, 2025
After a decade of deglobalization and U.S. geopolitics, globalization is no longer at crossroads, but unraveling. The longer this plunge prevails, the greater will be its costs.
Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow, Yale University
Mar 31, 2025
The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.